After years of flat demand, peak electricity demand is forecast to rise by 2.5 per cent as compared with last winter.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Surging demand for electricity, anticipated for the last several years, will arrive this winter and could strain the continent’s power grid during cold snaps, severe storms and other extreme conditions, according to a forecast from the North American Electric Reliability Corp.
The NERC, a regulator that’s responsible for improving the reliability of the continent’s power grid, concluded in its latest seasonal reliability outlook (covering December through February) that after years of flat electricity demand, peak demand is forecast to rise by 20 gigawatts as compared with last winter – a 2.5-per-cent increase. Increases are particularly large in areas where data centres are being built.
“All areas are assessed as having adequate resources for normal winter peak-load conditions,” the NERC concluded in the report, released Tuesday. “However, more extreme winter conditions extending over a wide area could result in electricity supply shortfalls.”
Total generation capacity also increased across the continent over the last year, but only by 9.4 gigawatts. Moreover, much of that increase came from solar resources, which often provide little electricity during hours of peak demand during the winter.
B.C. proposes industrial electricity rules putting resource development before AI, data centres
Opinion: Artificial intelligence: the good, the bad and the ugly environmental costs
Batteries have also been added to the grid in large numbers, and can improve reliability provided they’re charged when they’re needed. However, there may not be much opportunity to recharge batteries amid extreme winter weather.
“Some of these new resources are challenging to work with when it comes to meeting winter demand,” observed Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of reliability assessments.
The NERC is also concerned about natural gas generation, which is crucial for meeting peak winter demand across much of North America. Gas production often declines during cold snaps because supply infrastructure is subject to freezing. While some gas suppliers have made their infrastructure more resilient to freezing during the past few years, it noted, others haven’t, and such improvements are typically voluntary. Stockpiling gas at power plants for emergencies simply isn’t feasible, the NERC added.
The NERC identified seven U.S. grid areas at elevated risk, representing a significant portion of the American land mass. Northwestern areas, Texas and southeastern states were all singled out. Notably, Texas has experienced strong load growth from new data centres, which are raising risks of supply shortfalls.
The NERC singled out the Maritime provinces as the only region in Canada at elevated risk of electricity supply shortfalls amid extreme conditions such as a severe winter storm. Notably, it’s the only region in North America where anticipated reserve margins fall below the “reference” margin level. That level specifies how much reserve capacity grid planners deem necessary to comfortably meet peak loads amid unplanned power plant outages and other unusual conditions.
Mr. Olson said the Maritimes’ power grid is planned around winter, when peak loads are highest. When power supply is short, grid operators can call on neighbouring jurisdictions to supply additional electrons.
But “there are periods where they may not be able to find them, and that leads to the elevated risk” identified by NERC. This situation is little changed from last year, he added.
In a statement, Nova Scotia Power spokesperson Jacqueline Foster wrote: “Nova Scotia’s unique mix of legacy thermal generation, independent renewable energy producers, long-term import agreements with Newfoundland & Labrador, new grid-scale batteries and the ability to procure energy on the open market are all part of our long- and short-term plans to meet demand during severe cold weather events.”
Tracey Stephenson, a spokesperson for New Brunswick Power, said NERC’s forecast accords with the utility’s. But while NB Power is ready to issue emergency operations and alerts, its forecasts suggest that won’t be necessary this winter.
NB Power maintains its generation facilities to ensure they’re available during peak winter periods, she added. Its Point Lepreau Nuclear Generation Station, which has been out of service since July for planned maintenance, is expected to return to service on schedule in December.
“Fuel inventories have also been reviewed and topped up to ensure availability if and when temperatures drop. NB Power also has contracts in place with neighbouring utilities to ensure we have enough energy capacity in the colder months.”
Among Canadian grid areas, only Saskatchewan faces a significant increase in peak demand; Ontario, Manitoba and Quebec were forecast to experience largely flat peak demand, while the Maritimes would experience a slight decline. According to the NERC, SaskPower doesn’t expect any reliability problems this winter.