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A half-empty shelf of American whiskey at an LCBO in Toronto in March, 2025.Laura Proctor/The Canadian Press

When U.S. President Donald Trump unleashed his latest trade threat against Canada this week by vowing to block the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge, he took aim at one seemingly unrelated grievance: Ontario’s ban on alcohol from south of the border.

“Ontario won’t even put U.S. spirits, beverages, and other alcoholic products, on their shelves,” he wrote on Truth Social.

While Canada has abandoned most retaliatory tariffs it imposed on the U.S. last year, some provinces have generally maintained their restrictions on American beer, wine and spirits, the largest being Ontario, where imports have cratered by 95 per cent since the trade war broke out.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford intends to keep the ban in place. “It’s obviously working, it’s an irritant,” he said in response to Mr. Trump’s post while calling on him to end U.S. tariffs on Canada.

It’s a different story in Alberta, which lifted a similar ban last June. Since then, U.S. alcohol imports there have fully rebounded.

Even so, it’s not clear there’s a big appetite for all types of U.S. alcohol in Alberta.

“The wine side of it is pretty dead, there’s barely anybody buying U.S. wine,” said Ivonne Martinez, president of Alberta Liquor Stores Association.

However, demand for U.S. bourbon has surged back, said Adam Koziak, manager of the Chateau Louis Liquor Store in Edmonton. “Some people avoid American products, but there are people out there who have always been bourbon drinkers and they want that particular flavour profile,” he said.

At the same time, Ms. Martinez said there appears to be a booming interprovincial flow of alcohol from Alberta online retailers to residents in Ontario, even though the latter restricts such shipments.

“They’re selling bourbon like crazy, and a lot of it is being shipped to Ontario, and that could explain why the volume in Alberta has gone up,” she said.

Which all suggests that even if Mr. Trump gets his way and Ontario were to lift its booze ban, not every U.S. alcohol producer would stand to win.

Decoder is a weekly feature that unpacks an important economic chart.

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