Negotiations between Alberta and Ottawa that could pave the way for a new oil pipeline are being stymied by disagreement over the speed at which the province must increase its carbon price to $130 a tonne, according to multiple federal and provincial sources.
The discussions stem from an energy memorandum of understanding that the two governments signed in November.
Alberta and Ottawa have already reached agreement on two of four provisions in the MOU that were to be finalized by April 1: streamlining environmental impact assessments and the province cutting methane emissions by 75 per cent from 2014 levels by 2035.
But two other objectives in the MOU, involving the thorny issues of carbon pricing and a CO2-capture project in the oil sands, remain unresolved.
Two senior sources, one from the Alberta government and one from the federal government, say Ottawa and Edmonton are making headway as to how the province can reach the $130-a-tonne price set out in the MOU and aren’t miles apart on an agreement. The current price set by the province is $95 a tonne.
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But the speed at which Alberta gets to the higher price is a point of contention, they said; a five-year deadline looks a lot different for industry than setting a 10-year roadmap, for example. (There is no timeline laid out in the MOU.) The Globe and Mail is not naming the sources as they were not authorized to speak publicly on the negotiations.
Premier Danielle Smith’s government views $130 a tonne as a massive concession it made to pave the way for a new pipeline to the West Cost, and it believes that imposing a short timeframe is unrealistic and would price Alberta oil out of the global market, the provincial source said.
The pressure to reach an agreement is becoming more urgent.
The global energy crisis caused by the war in Iran has kicked off a major reset of energy markets as countries facing a paucity of oil and gas look to where they can source alternate supplies.
Canada’s current sluggishness at getting energy infrastructure projects – such as pipelines – approved and built is hampering its ability to move from being a country with significant and varied energy resources to being a major exporter, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, told The Globe this week.
Meanwhile, Alberta is facing a potential vote on succession driven in large part by what separatists believe is continuing federal policy that holds back the energy sector and, therefore, the province.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has pointed to the MOU as a sign of improved federal-provincial relations on energy and has said that Ottawa is working to streamline the process, including through the Building Canada Act that aims to expedite projects deemed in the national interest.
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The federal source said a carbon-pricing deal with Alberta is possible within one to three weeks. However, they don’t anticipate sign-off when the Prime Minister and Ms. Smith sit down for a meeting in Ottawa later this week.
But there are other issues bedeviling the discussions, both the provincial and federal sources said, including various court challenges to the MOU filed by First Nations.
That Alberta is forging ahead with discussions on how to reach the $130-a-tonne price is no small thing, given that much of the industry wants to see a carbon price nixed altogether.
The Oil Sands Alliance said in a news release Monday that Canada’s complex regulatory processes, uncompetitive carbon frameworks and fiscal systems have scuppered growth in the sector, with no major greenfield oil sands project sanctioned since 2013.
The alliance, whose members produce roughly 90 per cent of crude from Alberta’s oil sands, said Canada’s lack of predictable, durable and competitive regulatory and fiscal frameworks have driven away investment and caused a significant drop in capital spending.
It called on Ottawa and Alberta to urgently reform their regulatory and fiscal frameworks to “support the long-term competitiveness of the industry and attract the billions of dollars of investment required to realize the full economic potential of the resource.”
While both governments have taken steps toward what the alliance called a “critical national interest objective” since signing the MOU in November, “the pace of change has been slow, and we are at risk of letting this opportunity pass Canada by,” it said.
Part of the work of the alliance is the CO2 project referenced in the MOU, a 400-kilometre-long pipeline that would transport carbon trapped at oil sands facilities to an underground hub near Cold Lake, Alta. It aims to reduce emissions by 22 megatonnes a year.
Mr. Carney has said that reducing emissions from Alberta’s oil sands, including progress on the project, would be a “necessary condition” to approving any new pipeline to Canada’s coasts to access export markets. No private proponent has come forward with a proposal for a new pipeline to the West Coast.
The group said Monday that it is “committed to continuing to reduce emissions intensity,” including advancing the carbon capture and storage project.
“However, a project of this size requires supportive regulatory and fiscal frameworks, not an uncompetitive industrial carbon tax that no other major heavy oil producing jurisdiction faces, which would limit our industry’s ability to attract investment and grow,” it said.