A Bombardier employee works on an aircraft in Dorval, Que. on April 14.Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press
Bombardier Inc. BBD-B-T says it expects to sell more private jets and boost both profit and revenue this year, an assertive outlook that runs against bleaker projections coming from other corners of corporate Canada.
As U.S. President Donald Trump‘s trade policies rattle markets and set the foundations for what could be a global economic shock, the Canadian business aircraft maker says it has prepared for various outcomes and run the numbers. The conclusion: Its products remain in demand and business will grow, even amid the turmoil.
“Despite being in a more volatile environment, we continue to see order activity and we have not seen any cancellations,” Bombardier chief executive Éric Martel told analysts on a call to discuss first-quarter earnings.
Interest in the company’s military aircraft is building, particularly in Europe, as countries reshape their military procurement plans, Mr. Martel said. Meanwhile, the factors bolstering private jet usage are as clear as ever, driving sales and service revenue and fuelling his executive team‘s optimism the company will hit its near-term targets.
“There are dozens, if not hundreds of major international trade deals to be done around the world in the immediate future,” Mr. Martel said. “Business aviation is an accelerator thanks to the fundamental purpose of our plane – to connect leaders across oceans with speed and efficiency.”
Aircraft deliveries should top 150 for 2025, up from 146 last year, Bombardier said in a release. That cadence of shipments, combined with sales from its defence and services units as well as higher pricing, will help push up revenue 7 per cent to more than US$9.25-billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization 14 per cent to more than US$1.55-billion, the company said. Free cash flow should be at least US$500-million, more than twice last year’s level, it said.
The buoyant forecast contrasts with the more negative tone being communicated by leaders from other Canadian companies, some of whom are having trouble seeing far ahead and are pulling or slashing financial guidance. On Wednesday, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. CP-T, the country’s second-biggest railway, became the latest to cut its profit forecast for the year, citing “the increasing uncertainty created by evolving trade policies and the heightened risk of economic recession.”
Barely three months ago, Bombardier executives were decidedly more cautious when reporting their last quarterly earnings and they deferred financial forecasts for the year. The company said then that the macroeconomic situation was fluid and that it needed to further analyze the possible impact to its business.
At the time, Mr. Trump had just threatened Canada with an import tariff of 25 per cent on goods brought into the United States and given the Canadian government a reprieve of 30 days to settle concerns over illegal immigration and drugs. The President‘s threats against other countries were also ramping up.
With Bombardier generating about US$5-billion of its US$8-billion revenue from U.S.-based customers in 2023 and assembling and shipping out its planes largely from factories in Canada, analysts had warned the company could come under significant pressure in a trade war. U.S. import levies on aluminum and steel would also affect manufacturing costs, they said.
Bombardier saw sales activity slow down considerably in March for about three weeks as its customers and other stakeholders tried to digest the U.S. import tariffs and their wider impact on the global economy, Mr. Martel said. He said the company saw a similar trend during the U.S. banking crisis in 2023.
Momentum on order activity has since returned in most areas of the world, the CEO said. The Trump administration said that goods stamped compliant under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement will be exempted from tariffs for the time being. Bombardier confirmed that all its jets comply with the USMCA rules of origin, meaning they qualify for duty-free treatment.
The plane maker has also had more time to understand the mechanics of U.S. tariffs and how they would affect its business, particularly as they relate to new aircraft orders and the supply chain. The financial guidance provided Thursday accounts for all known tariff-related effects but could be revised if the situation changes, Bombardier finance chief Bart Demosky said.
Mr. Martel and Mr. Demosky hatched a five-year blueprint for recovery in March, 2021, that hinged on cementing Bombardier’s share of new aircraft sales, cutting costs, paying down debt, and dramatically increasing the company’s aircraft repair and service capability. They’re also building out Bombardier’s defence business, and see that unit being able to triple its revenue to more than US$1-billion in the second half of the decade.
Bombardier on Thursday reported net income of US$44-million or $0.37 per diluted share for its latest quarter and US$248-million on an adjusted EBITDA basis. Revenue climbed 19 per cent versus the same period last year, to US$1.5-billion.
The results were slightly below analyst expectations, a factor pushing down Bombardier shares in Toronto trading Thursday. But the company’s book-to-bill ratio of 0.9 times – a measure comparing new orders received to units shipped out – is “a solid result considering the chaotic macro environment and tariff uncertainty” during the quarter, National Bank analyst Cameron Doerksen said in a note to clients.
Mr. Doerksen said Bombardier is well-positioned to weather a slowdown in demand if that occurs, in part because about two-thirds of its new jet delivery revenue comes from the more stable high-end aircraft segment. The company’s growing service business is also helping reduce the cyclicality of new plane sales, the analyst said. He boosted his 12-month share price target to $115 from $107.