Good morning. Canadian businesses and households should fasten their seatbelts as we brace for another bumpy week of tariffs. With Mark Carney now steering the Liberal Party, Canadians will soon decide whether the former central banker or Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is the better candidate to get their “elbows up” and fight for Canada.
In the news
Commerce: Hudson’s Bay, Canada’s oldest retailer, anticipates closing about half its 80 stores in restructuring plan.
Fraud: Alberta and New Brunswick warn about a suspected cryptocurrency investment scam involving fake news articles circulating on social media.
Technology: Digital innovators see opportunity to scale up and boost domestic investment in homegrown digital innovation.
Tariff tracker
- The separate 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum are still set to take effect on March 12. Trump temporarily granted Canada and Mexico a partial reprieve from across-the-board 25-per-cent tariffs until April 2 and lowered the tariff on potash to 10 per cent.
- In a long-awaited response to Canada’s 100-per-cent tax on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles, Beijing hit back with tariffs against $3.7-billion worth of agricultural and food products.
- A road trip through Michigan and Ohio reveals a mood of ambivalence and paranoia in the early days of the trade wars. Jason Kirby brings us the view from America’s Rust Belt.
- Mounting provincial threats to restrict electricity exports to the United States could lead to higher power bills and more brownouts across the continent, legal and regulatory experts say.
A worker irons a Canadian flag before a Liberal Party’s gathering to announce its new leader in Ottawa. March 9, 2025.COLE BURSTON/The New York Times News Service
In focus
A(nother) week of change
This week, we asked The Globe’s business reporters to send us a quick look at what’s big on their beats in the days ahead. Perhaps unsurprisingly, their responses touched on a common theme.
A new Liberal Leader goes straight to work
Carney will meet the Liberal caucus today and hold formal transition talks with Justin Trudeau. It’s possible he will also sit down with the federal cabinet on Monday to discuss the way ahead with Donald Trump and his trade war with Canada and Mexico. Carney is expected to soon call a snap election for either April 28 or May 5. He will be spending much of this week on the new cabinet that will be sworn in on either Thursday or Friday.
Over the past week, he has focused on issues including staffing the Prime Minister’s Office, cabinet selection, transition to government, recruitment of star candidates and drafting an election platform to take to Canadian voters. Former Privy Council Clerk Janice Charette is heading up the transition team, which will focus on the size of cabinet, updating briefing documents, filing ethics disclosures and lists of decisions to be made by the new government.
–Robert Fife, Ottawa bureau chief
Tariffs complicate Macklem’s next move
Other than Donald Trump’s latest pronouncements on tariffs, the big economic event this week will be the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. Financial markets and analysts expect another quarter-point cut, which would take the bank’s benchmark rate to 2.75 per cent.
BoC Governor Tiff Macklem and his team are in a tough spot. Trade wars hurt economic growth and employment, but they also push up prices. That means the bank must choose between lowering interest rates to support the economy and raising them – or at least holding them steady – to head off inflation. With the U.S. President tearing up decades of continental economic integration, most observers expect the bank to focus on the recession risks and cut for the seventh consecutive time.
–Mark Rendell, economics reporter
Keeping the energy going
A five-day international energy conference is taking on heightened importance this week as Trump disrupts long-established trade relationships, tossing suppliers, including Canada, into an era of uncertainty. The annual CERAWeek conference begins today in Houston, with North America embroiled in a trade war that could affect oil, gas and electricity, and as Trump calls for U.S. companies to “drill, baby, drill” against a backdrop of weak crude prices.
Several Canadian government and industry officials are travelling to the event to seek clarity on the President’s tariff threats and meet with their U.S. counterparts and elsewhere in hopes of reaching agreements to limit economic damage. Political officials include federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Ontario Energy Minister Stephen Lecce. Among Canadian businesses, leaders from Enbridge Inc., TC Energy and Ivanhoe Mines are scheduled to speak.
–Jeffrey Jones, ESG and sustainable finance reporter, in Houston.
We’re making “Buy Canadian” a little easier
Since February, I’ve been researching alternative Canadian brands in response to tariff threats from the U.S. The Globe’s Big Guide to Canadian Shopping includes beauty and skincare, food and beverages, apparel and furniture. It’s not enough that a brand is Canadian-owned, patriotic shoppers want to know where the products are manufactured. In most cases, this information isn’t readily available.
I contacted multiple brands to ask where they source their material and ingredients as well as where their factories are located. You can use the menu to filter by the type of product you’re looking for, and open individual items for more information on the brand’s offerings and how to buy them.
To share your favourite Canadian-made products, e-mail us at audience@globeandmail.com.
–Dominique Gené, Report on Business staff reporter
What else is coming up
- Tuesday: March 11 marks the fifth anniversary of the WHO declaring COVID-19 a global pandemic. Back in in 2020, our reporters produced a package of stories predicting how COVID would change the world. We will be catching up to see how accurate we were.
- Starting Wednesday: Canada takes over the presidency of the G7 this year, leading a forum of seven of the world’s most advanced economies at a time of political instability. Here’s a look at what hosting the G7 means and what’s at stake. Nojoud Al Mallees will be covering.
- Next week: The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to keep its key interest rate unchanged in the coming months as it waits for widespread “uncertainty” to resolve, Chair Jerome Powell said.
Charted
There’s a growing case to invest outside the U.S.
Unpredictable U.S. hostility will continue to undermine the North American economy, and investors should think through the implications. Foreign investors also appear to have growing doubts about whether their money is as safe now in the U.S. as before. As the world’s “stupidest trade war” shows no signs of letting up, consider the case for more radical diversification, writes Ian McGugan.
Bookmarked
On our reading list
Young money: Here are three non-tax reasons for teenagers and students to file a tax return.
Change the channel: Are you enjoy watching TV? Because it likes watching you, writes Vass Bednar.
Part one: The first instalment of the 2025 Globe and Mail ETF Buyer’s Guide is all about Canadian Equity ETFs.
Morning update
Global markets were mostly lower as uncertainty over U.S. trade policy prevailed. Wall Street futures and TSX futures were in negative territory after North American markets closed higher on Friday.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.75 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 slid 0.42 per cent, Germany’s DAX dropped 1.14 per cent and France’s CAC 40 gave back 0.61 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.38 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.85 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 69.52 U.S. cents.