Good morning. At a time of deep economic uncertainty, the coming federal budget will be the biggest test of François-Philippe Champagne’s career. The role of Finance Minister is all-consuming, and sometimes political-career-killing – but it could be a stepping-stone to his dream job. That’s in focus today, along with the Jays and more on trade.
Up first
In the news
Trade: Mark Carney accepted an invitation from Xi Jinping to visit China as they sat down today for the first formal meeting between a Canadian prime minister and the Chinese president since 2017.
Banking: Canadian lenders explore new ways to stamp out compliance and financial-crime concerns in sectors that have traditionally been deemed too risky for them
Data: The U.S. government shutdown has silenced critical grain export data, leaving Canadian traders, market analysts and farmers hamstrung.
Finance Minister, Francois-Philippe Champagne in Ottawa.Rémi Thériault/The Globe and Mail
In focus
Man of the moment
Hello, I’m Globe and Mail columnist Konrad Yakabuski, based in Montreal.
I’ve been following the political career of François-Philippe Champagne since he emerged on the scene in 2015. My profile of Canada’s Finance Minister in the Saturday paper is online now and traces his trajectory from his youth in Quebec City and Shawinigan, followed by almost two decades working in Europe, to the upper echelons of the federal government where he now prepares to table his budget on Tuesday.
This will not be just any budget, but one Champagne and Prime Minister Mark Carney have billed as a “generational” shift aimed at equipping Canada to deal with the economic upheaval that U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war is causing his country’s northern neighbour. That likely means much bigger deficits – to fund huge investments in capital and defence spending – but also major cuts in spending on other programs.
The idea for a profile of Champagne originated in July with a question from Report on Business Magazine editor Dawn Calleja: Would I be willing to take time off from columnizing to write on the little-known (outside Quebec) politician who had recently become arguably the second-most important person in Ottawa after the Prime Minister himself?
Prime Minister Mark Carney and Minister of Finance Francois-Philippe Champagne in Trois-Rivieres, Que., in April.Carlos Osorio/Reuters
I was naturally game. But obtaining an interview with him required more than a little perseverance. I went back and forth with the minister’s press secretary for weeks before getting him to commit to a sit-down interview with Champagne. Yet more back and forth ensued before we nailed down a date for our meeting – Oct. 24 in Ottawa.
By then, I had completed what I considered a good amount of research on Champagne’s past, present and future ambitions. I spoke to people who knew him before he entered politics and others who met him only after he became the Liberal MP for Saint-Maurice-Champlain, the same Quebec riding that former prime minister Jean Chrétien represented for all but a few years between 1963 and 2004.
At a November 1977 news conference, a comment appears to amuse Finance Minister Jean Chretien and former Finance Minister John Turner.Tibor Kolley/The Globe and Mail
Chrétien also served as finance minister (between 1977 and 1979), making Champagne the second finance minister to hail from Saint-Maurice-Champlain. It is an open secret that he would like one day to succeed Chrétien as the second MP from the riding to become prime minister.
First, however, Champagne will need to prove he is up to job of Finance Minister at a critical juncture for the country.
My profile of the minister explores the challenges he faces as he tables a fiscal plan that is expected to contain billions in new spending for defence and infrastructure as concerns about Ottawa’s growing debt load resurface. Though he is also expected to announce major cuts to some programs, and a substantial reduction in the size of the public service, they are unlikely to offset an explosive increase in capital spending.
I also explore the Finance Minister’s relationship with his current boss – who, unlike his previous one, Justin Trudeau – likes to wade deep into the economic policymaking weeds.
As a former governor of the Bank of Canada, Carney has oodles more financial expertise than anyone else in his cabinet. But Champagne has far more political experience than Carney, who is a relative newbie to the game. It makes for an interesting partnership.
Jays watch
Sports’ pitching machine a big hit
Trajekt co-founders Rowan Ferrabee and Joshua Pope discuss tweaks they could make to the pitching robot.Nick Iwanyshyn/The Globe and Mail
Trajekt Sports is a Mississauga company that makes a robot pitcher that pro teams are using to mimic other teams’ pitchers to try to gain a hitting advantage. A little showpiece for a made-in-Canada technology that has revolutionized batting practice and was created by two engineers in their 20s from Ontario.
Today, with a possible World Series win in front of them, the Jays try to treat Game 6 like any other day.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s transformative playoff run gives him superstar status, writes Cathal Kelly.
Bookmarked
On our reading list
Dinger: Financial-crime watchdog issues record number of fines for latest fiscal year
Pinch: Algoma Steel CEO Mike Garcia leaving steelmaker for personal reasons but with no regrets
Foul: The National Council of Canadian Muslims is seeking action on CRA audit approach over terrorism concerns.
Up next
On our radar
At the bell: Earnings we’re watching include AbbVie Inc.; Canadian National Railway Co.; Chevron Corp.; Exxon Mobil Corp.; Imperial Oil Ltd.; and Magna International Inc. You can find our full calendar of events and earnings here.
Talking trade: Premiers are pressing Carney for a meeting to update them on the status of trade talks with the U.S., saying the public needs more information about the federal government’s plan.
Morning update
Global markets searched for direction after all but one of Big Tech’s Magnificent Seven reported earnings, with varied results.
Wall Street futures were mixed, with Nasdaq getting a boost from upbeat forecasts from Apple and Amazon, while TSX futures were flat.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was down 0.43 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.55 per cent, Germany’s DAX dropped 0.49 per cent and France’s CAC 40 gave back 0.39 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 2.12 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.43 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 71.40 U.S. cents.