Good morning. For the first time ever, gold is trading at more than US$4,000 an ounce, having gained 58 per cent in 2025 alone. That puts the commodity on track for its best year in nearly half a century. Gold is in focus today, along with a visualization of real-estate madness.
Up first
In the news
Telecom: Bell dividend likely on hold for three years while company prioritizes growth areas
Autos: Stellantis NV says it is moving production of the Jeep Compass to Illinois from Brampton, Ont., part of a US$13-billion plan to boost production in the United States.
Finance: RBC wants wealth management to be its next profit powerhouse, starting with a big U.S. push
Technology: Industry players say that Canada can lead the EV supply chain despite a trade war and murky policies
On our radar
- Today: Canadian data we’re watching today includes new motor vehicle sales, manufacturing sales and wholesale trade for August.
- Starting today: François-Philippe Champagne will chair a G7 Finance Ministers’ Meeting in Washington, and take part in G20, IMF and World Bank Group meetings.
- Earnings: Abbott Laboratories; Bank of America; Morgan Stanley; PNC Financial Services Group Inc.; Prologis Inc.
Global trade fears and geopolitical risks may reasonably have explained the surge in demand for physical gold.Lemon_tm/iStockPhoto / Getty Images
In focus
The gold bugs are swarming
Hi, I’m Tim Shufelt and I report on financial markets, where gold is putting up a year for the ages.
Suddenly, it’s cool to be a gold bug again. It’s been a while since that could be said. The investing community last gravitated to gold in the aftermath of the global financial crisis when trust in traditional finance was broken.
But the price of gold never went parabolic the way its faithful expected back then and gold sank back into irrelevance. (From an investment perspective, that is. It kept being used to make circuits and shiny things.)
A new paradigm for gold began in 2022 when consumer prices spiralled out of control. Popular interest in gold as an asset that keeps pace with inflation was rekindled. Since Canadian inflation peaked at 8.1 per cent in mid-2022, gold has gained around 150 per cent.
Lately, several other forces have conspired to catapult gold prices skyward. Let’s unpack some of them.
A worker displays a one kilogram gold bullion bar at the ABC Refinery in Sydney.DAVID GRAY/AFP/Getty Images
The debasement trade
When things get crazy, there has always been a place for gold in the bunkers of the fearful. War, plague, financial calamity and political dysfunction are where gold thrives.
Many investors are finding gold a palliative for America’s policy turmoil, from the overturning of the global trading system to the federal government shutdown.
Much of the Trump 2.0 agenda has pushed the U.S. dollar downward. By some measures, the greenback had the worst first half to a calendar year in more than 50 years. This has given rise to one of the buzziest trends in finance – the debasement trade.
Demand for assets that serve as substitutes for the U.S. dollar is soaring. Gold is chief among them. Crypto is there too.
Faith in the greenback as a linchpin of the global financial system is weakening. It doesn’t help that the U.S. is running astronomical federal deficits. Or that Trump poses a threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve.
Should you get in on the action?
Hot assets have a way of seducing the masses and converting non-believers. Professional investors may start to underperform the market if they don’t take part. Not owning gold these days can be hazardous to their employment.
Lots of everyday investors, meanwhile, tend to be trend chasers, latching onto an investing fad that may have already gotten a bit long in the tooth. It’s possible that gold, and not tech stocks, is the real financial bubble.
But you may have more exposure to the gold rush than you think. Gold and silver miners account for 27 of the top 30 performing stocks in the S&P/TSX Composite Index, year to date. Their average return is around 150 per cent. Any investor with a TSX index fund is already a beneficiary.
What’s next?
Gold is a highly speculative asset and thus, very difficult to put a fair value on.
Some credible analysts see it headed to US$5,000 an ounce in short order. Others see the risks tilted to the downside now that investor FOMO has factored into the market.
Globe investment reporter David Berman emphasizes the risk of jumping on the gold bandwagon today: “While the world looks upside down right now, it might not stay that way.”
Charted
Winners and losers
The peak of real estate madness might be behind us, but it seems as if the crisis is not going anywhere. The story with home prices really depends on where you look. In places such as Calgary, Saskatoon and Moncton, nominal home prices have risen by double-digit percentages since early 2022. This is just one example of 10 charts that explain Canada’s messy and complicated housing markets.
Bookmarked
On our reading list
Block: The Bloc Québécois lays out 18 budget demands, listing six as non-negotiable.
Bump: BlackRock’s assets hit a record $13.46-trillion on third-quarter markets rally, M&A boost.
Boost: Blue Jays’ playoff run boosts sales at local businesses, giving owners even more reason to cheer.
Morning update
Global stocks recovered some of their recent losses after comments by U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell bolstered rate-cut hopes and a slate of positive bank earnings on Wall Street.
Wall Street futures were in positive territory and TSX futures pointed higher after Canada’s main stock market closed sharply up yesterday.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.6 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 declined 0.47 per cent, Germany’s DAX climbed 0.08 per cent and France’s CAC 40 advanced 2.35 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.76 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.84 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 71.24 U.S. cents.