Good morning. For the past several months, my colleague James Bradshaw, who covers institutional investors, and I have been researching how Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre – whose relationships with CEOs range from prickly to non-existent – would work with business leaders if elected Prime Minister in the coming federal election. More on that below, but first:
In the news
Trade: Trump waives 25-per-cent tariffs on Mexico and Canada until April 2
Auto: Tariffs will hurt the Detroit Three automakers and drive up vehicle prices for their customers, says Martinrea International Inc. executive
Bonus: RBC paid chief executive officer Dave McKay nearly $26-million last year, a 60-per-cent raise from his prior-year compensation.
Tariff tracker
- Farmers: Trump bows to pressure and grants a 10-per-cent tariff for Canadian potash
- Retailers: Different companies are taking different approaches to the twists and turns of a continuing trade battle
- Shopping: Why Canadian grocery shoppers have been seeing discounts, despite tariffs
- The provinces: Ontario will impose a 25-per-cent energy surcharge on the U.S. Monday, despite the tariff pause. Alberta cuts off alcohol from the U.S., but no change to oil. Quebec will table its budget on March 25 with a focus on infrastructure and tariffs.
- Tony Keller: Trump doesn’t want a tariff pause. He wants tariffs
Pierre Poilievre waves to supporters during a 'Canada First' rally in Ottawa. Feb. 15, 2025.DAVE CHAN/AFP/Getty Images
In focus
Poilievre’s disdain for big business
When James and I decided to take on this story last September, polls had Pierre Poilievre way out in front of Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, Mark Carney ran a Brookfield fund focused on the energy transition and Kamala Harris had handily won the second U.S. presidential debate.
The stakes have changed a little since then.
The next Prime Minister faces an existential challenge in dealing with President Donald Trump. Today, our story looks at Poilievre’s ability to rally the country’s business leaders, and all Canadians, to win a trade war and keep the true north strong and free.
Some of Poilievre’s policy positions are hallmarks of Conservative orthodoxy. In other respects, he is a combative breed of party leader the likes of which the country’s business elite has never encountered.
My first face-to-face encounter with Poilievre came in December, 2023, when the Conservative leader gave a luncheon speech at a downtown Toronto think tank, the C.D. Howe Institute, and I joined a table with several of his staff, then wrote a column that afternoon. At the time, polls said Poilievre could take the stage, recite the alphabet and still win the votes of virtually everyone in the room in an election against Trudeau.
To use a hockey metaphor, Poilievre came in elbows up.
He told a crowd of bankers, lawyers and pension fund executives he disliked Bay Street, avoided Bay Street and thought Bay Street got in the way of economic growth, owing to what he perceived as a far-too-cozy relationship with the federal Liberals. Poilievre’s theme at the time was that Canada is broken and he was the guy to fix it, by axing the tax, inspiring ordinary Canadians and ignoring CEOs.
I listened to Poilievre dress down the crowd knowing the previous night he gripped-and-grinned with many members of the audience while collecting their $1,750 cheques at a Conservative fundraiser, hosted by a nearby investment bank.
The contrast between the prickly, public Poilievre, who took pleasure in bashing CEOs, and the private politician glad-handing his way into finance circles struck James and me as a story worth telling.
Poilievre is sharply critical of “particularly a certain type of business leader,” Ginny Roth told us. She served as Poilievre’s communications director when he ran for the Conservative leadership. “A more Bay Street, corporate, Toronto-centric type of business leader.”
Then Donald Trump won the U.S. election and set out to make Canada the 51st state by imposing economy-busting tariffs. And Trudeau resigned, kicking off a Liberal leadership race projected to conclude with the coronation of a new leader on Sunday, with Carney still leading as front runner.
Polls suggest the next election, against a former central banker with business credibility, is no longer a cake walk for Poilievre. If he does become prime minister, he’ll have link arms with the same CEOs he’s been bashing to present an united front in negotiations with the capricious Trump and deal with what’s likely to be a tariff-induced recession.
Unlike Carney’s long-established friendships and ties in the top ranks of business, Poilievre has almost no connections or personal experience in that world. The closest corporate job he has on his CV is working the phones to do corporate collections for Telus as a teenager.
The Conservatives’ aggressive fundraising efforts, and the Liberals’ decision to shut down Parliament while they picked a new leader, meant any executive who wanted to meet Poilievre had an opportunity to do so. We talked to dozens of business leaders who have spent time with the man who would be prime minister.
Poilievre remains prickly, more focused on telling audiences that Carney “is just like Justin” than he is in detailing a Conservative economic agenda he fears the Liberals will copy.
However, the more time he spends on Bay Street, the more CEOs say the career politician comes across as a student of business who does his homework, and understands the gravity of the issues Canada faces. Can Poilievre pivot from slinger of slogans to leader of substance, and win support from business leaders?
As James and I report, it’s complicated.
Charted
Auto unions in Canada and the U.S. are at odds over tariffs
As the tariff plan shifts (again), prominent auto-worker unions, which have long been united in their antagonism of free-trade practices, find themselves on opposing ends of the trade war. America’s United Auto Workers Union supports tariffs, while Canada’s Unifor calls them unjust.
At least 25 Canadian-owned auto parts companies operate more than 170 plants across the U.S., according to an analysis of corporate filings and company websites in consultation with the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, a lobby group that represents the Canadian industry.
Also read
- Dear Donald: A history lesson on why American carmakers came to Canada
Bookmarked
On our reading list
No smoke: B.C.’s share of a landmark settlement for health damages from the big tobacco firms will be about $3.7-billion, distributed over at least 18 years.
Getting smoke: Ontario law society CEO departs amid independent review of her salary increase.
Smoked out: Get ready for an economic shock of historic proportions and a loonie below 63 U.S. cents, writes David Rosenberg.
Morning update
Global markets slid as frequent shifts in U.S. trade policy throughout the week resulted in risk aversion and ahead of key Canadian and U.S. employment data. Wall Street futures pointed higher and TSX futures were flat after North American markets closed lower yesterday.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was down 0.56 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 declined 0.45 per cent, Germany’s DAX dropped 1.57 per cent and France’s CAC 40 gave back 0.99 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 2.17 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.57 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 69.82 U.S. cents.