Gold bar replicas at the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada annual conference in Toronto in March, 2023.Chris Helgren/Reuters
Canada’s surprising return to a trade surplus in September, the first since January, came on the back of what has become a familiar source of export strength in recent months: gold.
Exports climbed 6.3 per cent that month, shifting Canada from an international trade deficit of $6.4-billion in August to a small surplus of $153-million.
Several sectors propelled the jump in exports, including oil, aircraft parts and light trucks, but the largest increase came from metal and non-metallic mineral products, and that segment was driven by higher exports of unwrought gold, said Statistics Canada.
It was far from the first month the shiny metal has provided glitter to Canada’s trade picture.
Since the start of 2023, when gold price growth kicked into higher gear, precious metals have doubled as a share of Canada’s merchandise exports.
Over that time gold prices have more than doubled from around US$2,000 an ounce to US$4,270 this week.
At the same time, gold imports have remained relatively stable as a share of merchandise trade over the years. That’s had the effect of aiding Canada’s trade balance as gold exports rise faster than gold imports.
Indeed, in releasing September’s trade numbers, Statscan noted that of the 4.1-per-cent decline in imports, almost two-thirds came from metal and non-metallic mineral products, again driven by gold.
However, these gold-related swings in Canada’s trade numbers almost entirely reflect the amplifying effect of the gold price surge. In volume terms, gold exports are little changed from where they were at the start of 2023.
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