International migration accounts for nearly all population growth due to Canada’s low birth rates and an aging population.Paige Taylor White/The Canadian Press
The Canadian population barely grew over the first three months of the year, and the number of temporary residents fell for a second consecutive quarter, a result of deliberate policy changes by Ottawa to reduce immigration levels after years of soaring growth.
Between Jan. 1 and April 1, 2025, the overall population grew by just 20,107 people to roughly 41.55 million, according to Statistics Canada estimates published Wednesday. At 0.05 per cent, this was the weakest quarter for growth since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, when border restrictions limited migration to the country.
From 2021 to 2024, the population jumped by an average of 217,000 people a quarter, a historic period for growth that raised widespread concerns about access to housing and health care – and eventually forced the federal government to implement new restrictions on migration, particularly for temporary residents.
Those measures have led to an abrupt shift in the country’s growth trajectory, driven by a reduction of temporary residents. As of April 1, there were 61,111 fewer temporary residents in Canada, compared with the start of the year.
Temporary residents, who number nearly three million, make up 7.1 per cent of the total population, down from a peak of 7.4 per cent last year. Ottawa is targeting a temporary-resident share of the population of 5 per cent by 2027.
The Statscan data showed that the largest decrease in temporary residents came from those holding study permits. There were about 53,000 fewer international student visa holders in the first quarter of this year, compared with the previous quarter.
Last September, the federal government imposed a cap on the number of international students coming to Canada, with the aim of issuing 300,000 fewer study visas by the end of 2026. Additionally, Ottawa restricted the issuance of work permits for spouses of foreign workers and students in master’s degree programs.
At the end of 2024, there were close to one million international students in Canada, according to federal government data.
On an annual basis, Canada’s population grew by 1.2 per cent − a sharp deceleration from recent peaks above 3 per cent.
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International migration accounts for nearly all of Canada’s population growth, owing to low birth rates and an aging population.
“We’ve argued all along that the explosion in population growth – to nearly 1.3 million people within a year at one point – was playing a major role in many economic issues Canadian policymakers have been struggling with,“ wrote Robert Kavcic, senior economist at Bank of Montreal, in a Wednesday morning note to clients. ”New immigration targets set last fall are clearly now having an impact.”
Greater outflows of foreign workers and international students will be seen over the next two years as Ottawa tries to hit its 5-per-cent temporary-resident target, Mr. Kavcic noted.
“The impact is already being seen on the ground, perhaps most vividly in loosening rental markets,” he said.
Rents in the Greater Toronto Area declined 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, according to a recent report from real estate research company Urbanation. Toronto condo rents, in particular, have dropped dramatically, by 10 per cent in the past year.
Meanwhile, Canada admitted 104,256 permanent immigrants in the first quarter of 2025, the smallest number in four years.
Still, that figure is higher than Canada’s typical permanent-immigration numbers. Before the pandemic, the country never admitted more than 86,246 in a first quarter, according to Statscan.
Ottawa announced last year that it would lower its intake levels for permanent residents in 2025, admitting 395,000 people as opposed to its previous target of 500,000 permanent residents. It is also capping PR intakes at 380,000 in 2026, and 365,000 in 2027.