Beachgoers take in the sunset at Mackenzie Beach in Tofino, B.C., on Thursday. An economist at TD Bank projected that tourism spending in Canada will grow by between 2 per cent and 4 per cent this year.Photography by Melissa Renwick/The Globe and Mail
In picturesque Tofino, B.C., the tourist season got off to a booming, early start this spring. Across the country, recreational vehicle rentals are surging. And the number of passengers boarding flights bound for domestic destinations is running well ahead of last year.
As summer kicks into high gear, an elbows-up domestic travel rush is under way – a bright spot for an economy facing serious stress.
Amid the trade war with the United States and President Donald Trump’s 51st-state rhetoric, a homegrown U.S.-travel boycott has led to a collapse in the number of Canadians heading south. That, in turn, is giving Canada’s tourism industry an opportunity to cash in on a historic spell of patriotism.
The payoff isn’t cut and dry. Uncertainty about layoffs and hotter inflation is forcing some Canadian households to pull back on vacation spending altogether, while a corresponding decline in U.S. visitors to Canada is already leaving its mark on the industry.
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But the travel-local movement comes at a critical time.
“It’s a bit of a rare green flag for Canada’s economy right now,” said Sonny Scarfone, an economist at Desjardins. “It won’t change the growth outlook for GDP, but at the margins, if people end up staying home and spending money at restaurants and sporting events instead of travelling to the U.S., that is giving a boost to services that might be hurt by slowdowns in other sectors.”
And Canadians are indeed staying home, in droves. In May, nearly 800,000 fewer Canadian residents crossed the border back into Canada from the U.S. than in the same month last year, a 38-per-cent decline. Meanwhile, the number of Canadian residents returning by air was down by one-quarter.
In a recent report, Mr. Scarfone estimated that if half of the Quebec residents who have said they plan to cancel trips to the U.S. redirect their spending domestically, the spillover effects could add $900-million to Canada’s gross domestic product.
In a separate report late last month, Anusha Arif, an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, projected that tourism spending in Canada, which stood at $100-billion last year (in 2017 dollars), will grow by between 2 per cent and 4 per cent this year, with domestic travel expected to provide the biggest lift. As it stands, domestic travel already accounts for 75 per cent of tourism spending, according to Statistics Canada.
The TD report noted that Airbnb has seen a 20-per-cent increase in domestic travel searches, while also highlighting strong growth in domestic airline passenger traffic this year.
In May, passenger volume on domestic flights climbed 6.2 per cent compared with the same month in 2024.
“Canada’s tourism sector could hold up far better than what otherwise would be the case in 2025,” Ms. Arif wrote.
At the Crystal Cove Beach Resort in Tofino, general manager J.J. Belanger likened this moment to 2022, as pandemic restrictions lifted. “It became the biggest year for Canadians travelling in Canada in the post-COVID era. We’re mirroring that right now.”
While accommodations in Tofino are always difficult to find in summer months, hotels and resorts there and in other parts of B.C. experienced an early surge in spring bookings, said Mr. Belanger, who is also chair of the Tourism Industry Association of BC.
Likewise, bookings at Crystal Cove for September are already at last year’s levels, with two months still to go.
“I think we’re going to see a banner year in tourism for this year,” he said.
J.J. Belanger, the general manager of Crystal Cove Beach Resort in Tofino, B.C., and chair of the Tourism Industry Association of BC, says hotels and resorts in the town and in other parts of province experienced an early surge in spring bookings.
At RVezy, a Canadian online platform that connects recreational-vehicle owners and renters, booked travel days for July are up 25 per cent from last year, driven by a surge in demand from Canadians staying in the country, said Michael McNaught, the company’s president and co-founder.
The largest growth segment this year is RV renters having trailers delivered to their destinations.
“We’re seeing a lot more of closer-to-home travel within two hours of home at parks, campgrounds or your buddy’s cottage,” he said. ”In the past, a lot of people would be crossing the border to go for weekends in the summer months, but that activity is happening in Canada this year."
Still, one challenge facing Canada’s tourism sector is a decline in Americans coming north in recent months. In May, the number of U.S. residents entering Canada by vehicle dropped 8.4 per cent from last year, though that was a smaller annual decline than in March and April.
Ian O’Toibin, a visitor from Squamish, plays his guitar inside his van parked at Long Beach, in the Pacific Rim National Park Reserve, just outside Tofino, B.C., on Thursday.
That pullback weighed down the tourism industry to start the year. While domestic tourism spending grew by 0.8 per cent in the first quarter, that was offset by a 2.6-per-cent decline in spending by international travellers, mostly Americans, according to Statscan. As a result, tourism spending was flat from the previous quarter at $26.3-billion.
At the Southampton Inn in the town of Southampton, Ont., on the shore of Lake Huron, some American guests who visit the area each summer expressed unease about returning this year, said Colleen Price, innkeeper at the boutique hotel. “A comment I’ve heard from loyal repeat American guests is they’re almost embarrassed and would they be welcome to come up here, and we’ve told them absolutely,” she said.
Canada isn’t the only country where people have soured on U.S. travel. For instance, visits from Western Europeans on tourist visas in May fell 5.6 per cent from the year before, with Germany and Denmark sending nearly 25 per cent fewer tourists, according to the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office.
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Some global tourists are expected to visit Canada instead this summer, though to what extent is unclear.
John Simon, president of Canadvac Travel Services, a company that arranges travel packages in Eastern and Central Canada for European tour operators, had hoped to see an influx of British and German tourists this season.
But during meetings with tour operator clients across Europe in February and March, “the message I got back was that, yes, people are definitely cancelling their U.S. trips, but they’re also worried about the economy and what the tariffs are going to do to their incomes and jobs, so they’re staying closer to home,” he said.
Still, those in the hotel industry are seeing an increase in visitors from Europe.
Canada’s accommodation sector was already running at peak capacity heading into the summer, said Nicole Nguyen, a senior vice-president with commercial realtor CBRE Group. Yet even with a drop-off in visitors from the U.S., occupancy levels – and room rates – have stayed strong.
Visitors line up at Tacofino, a popular food truck in Tofino, B.C., on Thursday.
“What we’re hearing from operators is that there are a lot more Canadians travelling, but there are also Europeans coming,” she said.
Of course, just because Canadians are swearing off U.S. travel doesn’t necessarily mean their tourism bucks will get spent in Canada. Many are shifting to other international destinations.
The number of passengers screened at Canada’s largest airports for travel to countries other than the U.S. was up 4.3 per cent in May from the same month last year. Some of those were international travellers returning home, but many were Canadians heading abroad.
There are also signs that in lieu of travel to the U.S., Canadians are spending more on simple pleasures such as dining out and local entertainment.
According to data from OpenTable, an online restaurant reservation tool, Canada has led the world in recent months in growth in the number of seated diners. In June, dining activity climbed 24 per cent from the year before, more than double the pace of growth in the U.S. and globally.
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Whatever the case, the backlash against travel to the U.S. could be lasting.
In February, Bruce Edwards, 72, and his partner travelled “somewhat reluctantly” from their home in Burlington, Ont., to Florida for a vacation they’d paid for prior to last November’s U.S. election. “My contempt for the administration didn’t extend to shooting myself in the foot and wasting all that money,” he said.
But then Mr. Edwards’s anger mounted as the U.S. President ramped up his annexation threats, launched tariffs on Canada and harangued Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in an infamous Oval Office meeting. The couple cut their trip short and returned home, forfeiting the remainder of their reservation.
This summer, the couple plan to stay close to home at an Ontario cottage, but come winter, “in the elbows-up spirit,” they may try a trip to Western Canada or a European excursion.
Anywhere but the U.S.
“There’s not a chance we’re going back.”