A CN Rail locomotive sits idle at the CN Stuart Yard in Hamilton, Ont., on Aug. 22, 2024.Peter Power/The Canadian Press
Tracy Robinson, the head of Canadian National Railway Co. CNR-T, says she is optimistic that a looming trade battle between Canada and the United States will not have major effects on either country’s economy.
CN’s chief executive officer said the Montreal-based railway, which relies on cross-border shipment for about one-third of its revenue, has various plans it will trigger in response to President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports on Saturday.
CN reiterated its financial guidance for 2025, based on the assumption that neither Mr. Trump’s tariffs nor Ottawa’s retaliatory measures will lead to a recession in Canada or inflation in the U.S.
“We can’t predict how this will unfold,” she told analysts on an earnings conference call on Thursday, “but we can control how we respond and how we partner with customers to adjust. We’ve considered a full range of options and have a plan for various scenarios. The key for us will be to be nimble and adjust quickly as the situation unfolds.”
Ms. Robinson’s optimistic outlook mirrors that of Keith Creel, the top executive at Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd., in a call with analysts on Wednesday.
However, economists, politicians and business leaders say that Mr. Trump’s tariffs would cause deep job losses and economic harm in Canada while driving inflation in the U.S.
CN operates a 32,000-kilometre network that spans Canada and reaches deep into the U.S. CN’s work force numbers 24,600 with 800 on furlough.
The railway released quarterly and year-end results after the close of markets on Thursday.
For the three months ending on Dec. 31, CN posted a profit of $1.15-billion, or $1.82 a share, down by 12 per cent from the year-earlier quarter after adjustments for a property sale and goodwill. Revenue fell by 3 per cent to $4.36-billion, weighed down by November port strikes in Montreal and on Canada’s West Coast.
For the full year of 2024, revenue rose by 1 per cent to $17-billion, and profit slipped by 6 per cent to $4.5-billion, after adjustments. CN and CPKC locked out workers in August amid contact disputes. The federal government quickly ordered an end to the rail shutdown, but the stoppage affected shippers across Canada and into the U.S.
For 2025, CN is forecasting an increase in adjusted per-share profit of 10 per cent to 15 per cent, and revenue-per-ton-mile growth of up to 5 per cent.
CN’s share price is down by 4.5 per cent on the Toronto Stock Exchange over the past six months.
Editor’s note: This article has been updated to clarify that CN's financial guidance for 2025 is based on the assumption that neither President Donald Trump’s tariffs nor Ottawa’s retaliatory measures will lead to a recession in Canada or inflation in the U.S.