Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Beth Hammack in New York City in April, 2025.Mike Segar/Reuters
A top Federal Reserve official said Monday that an interest rate hike could be appropriate if inflation remains persistently above the central bank’s 2-per-cent target, the latest sign that some policy makers are moving away from a bias toward reducing borrowing costs.
Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said in an interview with the Associated Press that her general preference is for the Fed keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged “for quite some time.”
And she also said the Fed might have to cut its rate if higher gas prices caused the economy to slow and unemployment to rise. But if inflation remained elevated, a rate hike could be needed, she said.
“I can foresee scenarios where we would need to reduce rates ... if the labour market deteriorates significantly,” Hammack said. “Or I could see where we might need to raise rates if inflation stays persistently above our target.”
Hammack’s comments suggest a growing concern among at least some policy makers that inflation, which was elevated before the Iran war, may require rate hikes to tame further. Rate increases by the Fed would be a sharp shift from late last year, when the central bank cut its key rate three times.
Other Fed officials have recently opened the door to rate hikes, including Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed. And minutes of the Fed’s meeting in late January said that several of the 19 officials on the rate-setting committee supported altering the post-meeting statement to reflect the possibility of “upward adjustments” to rates.
A rate hike would almost certainly prompt President Donald Trump to lash out at the Fed, which he has harshly criticized for not cutting rates further. He has called for the central bank’s key rate to be lowered to 1 per cent, down from its current level of about 3.6 per cent.
The government will update two inflation measures this week, though only one will likely reflect the impact of the jump in gas prices since the Iran war began Feb. 28. Gas prices averaged US$4.12 a gallon nationwide Monday, according to AAA, up 80 US cents from a month earlier.
On Friday, the government will issue the March inflation report, providing a first read on the impact of higher gas and energy prices. Economists forecast that annual inflation will worsen significantly, jumping to 3.1 per cent from 2.4 per cent in February, according to a survey by data provider FactSet. On a monthly basis, they expect consumer prices rose 0.8 per cent in March from February, which would be the biggest increase in almost four years.
The Commerce Department will report the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for February on Thursday, though that won’t incorporate any impact from the Iran conflict.
Hammack said the Cleveland Fed’s own estimates show inflation could reach 3.5 per cent in April, which would be the highest since 2024. Inflation spiked to 9.1 per cent in June, 2022, before slowly declining.
“Inflation has been running above our target for more than five years now,” Hammack said, and a further increase would mean it is “moving in the wrong direction, away from our 2-per-cent objective.”
The Federal Reserve is required by Congress to seek low inflation and maximum employment, and higher gas prices could threaten both those mandates, which is why officials like Hammack are emphasizing the “two-sided risks” that the central bank faces.
Consumers may react to higher gas prices by cutting back on their spending elsewhere in the economy, Hammack said, which could lead to weaker growth and layoffs, which the Fed would need to respond to with rate cuts.
How the war impacts the economy will depend on how long it lasts and how long it lifts gas prices and other costs, Hammack said. Now in its sixth week, it has already lasted longer than she expected when the Fed last met March 17-18.
Hammack said rising gas prices stemming from the Iran war are “the No. 1 thing” she hears about from people in her district, which covers Ohio and parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky.
“We know that causes a lot of pain personally, as it eats up a bigger and bigger share of people’s paycheques. So it’s important for us to stay focused on it,” she added.