Baby recession could transform cities, property concerns over Musqueam deal and the Home of the Week: Canadian real estate news for the week of March 13

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This week: Canada’s baby recession could transform our communities, and Ottawa-Musqueam deal ignites concerns for private property rights in B.C. Plus, a surprising sign of resilience in the housing market – for now – and one property worth a look.

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Cities

Steep drop in fertility rates could transform Canadian cities

A sharp decline in fertility rates is already changing the face and fabric of Canada’s cities. Every major city has seen a decline in fertility rates over the past five years, with many falling to record new lows, according to data obtained by The Globe and Mail.

The national average’s drop from 1.60 in 2015 to 1.25 in 2025 – well below the 2.1 demographers say is needed to sustain Canada’s population – is “astounding,” Don Kerr, a demographer at King’s University College at Western University, told Ann Hui and Yang Sun. “We’re losing out on something, losing the vitality of our cities as they continue to age.”

And Kerr says that while there’s no population crisis as immigration helps sustain overall numbers, an older population will have a “rather fundamental and profound” impact. Aging cities could result in fewer schools and parks and community centres, smaller families that create smaller family networks and fewer young people for older adults to rely on, he said. Ann and Yang break down the data and what a declining fertility rate means for the health of Canada’s people, cities and economy.

Land title

Ottawa says Musqueam deal doesn’t affect private property

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Private property isn’t on the table in a recent deal between the federal government and Musqueam First Nation, Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Rebecca Alty told Emily Haws and other media on Thursday, as the agreement ignites further concerns about how property rights intersect with Indigenous land claims in B.C.

The deal, announced in a little-noticed news release on Feb. 20, acknowledges the existence of constitutionally protected Aboriginal title and creates a framework to implement rights and title in Musqueam traditional territory. As Justine Hunter reports, that spans half of the Lower Mainland and much of what is now Vancouver.

Where title will be recognized and which rights will be affirmed still needs to be negotiated, but the agreement has already sparked criticism and introduced additional confusion on what has been an issue of acute public interest since the B.C. Supreme Court’s explosive Cowichan decision in August. The ruling in a separate case stated that Aboriginal title is a “prior and senior right” to land, over and above the “fee simple” title that private landholders have. Read more about the Musqueam deal, the Cowichan decision, and what they could mean for cities and property owners in B.C.

This week’s lowest fixed and variable mortgage rates in Canada

Rates shown are the lowest available for each term/type and category (insured vs. uninsured) as of market close on Thursday, March 12.

Analysis

The wave of missed mortgage payments that never came

The number of homeowners who miss mortgage payments is one of the clearest indicators of housing market stress – and one that, surprisingly, hasn’t increased in Canada lately. The metric is watched closely because a rising mortgage arrears rate – one of the earliest warning signs of the 2008 financial crisis – often signals broader financial strain.

But by this measure, Canada’s slumping housing market is showing some unexpected resilience, writes Hanif Bayat. The latest figures from the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. show a mortgage arrears rate of 0.22 per cent, meaning roughly one in every 450 mortgage-holders is more than three months behind on payments.

However, while the latest data suggests no signs of widespread distress yet, that could change quickly as the Iran war is poised to drive higher fixed and variable mortgage rates. Salmaan Farooqui dives into what the conflict means for mortgages and how to prepare if you’re planning to renew or apply for a mortgage this year.

Design corner

Five cheap ways to level up your home

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Between cold weather and rising costs of living, staying in has become the new going out. And with the at-home economy poised to boom, there are plenty of ways to elevate your space when hosting friends or just to pamper yourself. From the bathroom to the bedroom, here are five inexpensive ways to bring a little luxury into your home.

Home of the Week

Country living, close to town

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14 Inverhill Rd., Centre Wellington, Ont. – Full gallery here

Two empty-nesters flocked from to this new development from their rural, 12-acre family home for a little piece of country that isn’t in the middle of nowhere. Set in farmland north of Kitchener-Waterloo and Guelph, the home at Swan Creek Estates offers a view of the surrounding woods and pastoral farm fields but is just a seven-minute drive into nearby Elora. And while the two-level, six-bedroom house isn’t what many would consider “downsizing,” it was a perfect gathering point for the owners, their four children and eight grandchildren.

Trying to emulate the backyard pond where the family grew up swimming and skating, the couple installed an in-ground cement pool winterized for year-round use – and a heating pad over the walkway from the main house to keep feet warm in the winter. They also added a poolside retreat with a pool house, outdoor shower, fire pit, walking paths, mature trees and a children’s playground, which won Silverfern Landscaping a provincial industry design award. The backyard haven became a hub for all the extended family’s celebrations – even Christmas Eve swims! – and in recent years, other families have brought new life to the peaceful community.