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The radar system of a NATO Boeing E-3A Airborne Warning and Control System airplane at the NATO Airborne Early Warning and Control Force headquarters in Geilenkirchen, Germany, on Nov. 13, 2025.PAU BARRENA/AFP/Getty Images

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization appears set to tap Bombardier Inc. BBD-B-T and its manufacturing partner Saab for a new fleet of defence surveillance aircraft in what could be a major windfall for Canada’s aerospace industry.

The alliance’s support and procurement agency decided last week to select the partners’ GlobalEye aircraft to replace its aging fleet of Boeing E-3 Sentry airborne warning and control system planes, French investigative publication La Lettre reported. German press agency DPA independently confirmed the information in a separate report.

“This NATO decision is significant as it marks the first time since 1982 that a non-Boeing aircraft will serve as NATO’s common airborne surveillance backbone,” Desjardins Capital Markets analyst Benoit Poirier said in a research note. “The award has materialized faster and ended up being larger than we expected.”

The alliance’s order is for between 10 and 12 aircraft at a list price of €550-million each ($878-million), La Lettre reported. The total purchase would top €5-billion not including training and maintenance, it said.

A NATO official in Brussels declined to confirm that the contract had been awarded, saying the countries involved in replacing the existing Airborne Warning and Control System fleet continue their work on the initiative. Saab spokesman Mattias Rådström said the company has provided information to the alliance’s procurement unit but has not signed a contract or received an order from NATO for GlobalEye.

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Sweden’s Saab is the main manufacturer and systems integrator for GlobalEye, producing the radar, sensors, and command and control systems. Bombardier makes the airframes for the planes, which are modified versions of its Global 6000 and 6500 business jets. The Canadian company directed questions about the NATO report to Saab.

Winning the order would be a significant victory for Sweden, which has succeeded in establishing one of its strategic capabilities within NATO just two years after joining the alliance, La Lettre said. The superior range of Saab’s latest-generation surveillance radar and the total cost of the aircraft, nearly half that of Boeing’s, proved decisive, the publication said.

It would also be a big deal for Canada.

Bombardier has a growing business building specialized aircraft for military surveillance and reconnaissance missions and its executives have said they’ve only begun to scratch the surface of sales possibilities for the Global jet as a defence platform. The business last year generated more than US$1-billion in revenue, putting the company “several years ahead” of its growth plan, according to Bombardier chief financial officer Bart Demosky.

The NATO contract alone has the potential to deliver US$1-billion in revenue for Bombardier over the life of the program, Desjardins’ Mr. Poirier estimated. He said Bombardier’s sales campaign opportunities in defence have materially increased in recent months, driven by several factors including Europe and other countries steering away from their reliance on U.S. military equipment suppliers.

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Meanwhile, Montreal-based CAE Inc. CAE-T would be a strong contender to do the training for the new NATO fleet. The company signed a co-operation agreement with Saab this past November that will see CAE offer simulation-based training solutions in support of Saab’s international GlobalEye sales campaigns.

The United Arab Emirates was the first country to order the GlobalEye aircraft system, which has been described as a tracking machine that can detect and monitor targets such as missiles, ships and ground vehicles in real time over distances as long as 550 kilometres. Sweden and France have also put in orders while Canada is weighing whether to purchase the aircraft.

Saab has pitched the Carney government on a proposal that would see Ottawa buy 72 of its Gripen fighter jets as well as several GlobalEye planes. The Swedish company is offering to build both aircraft in Canada if the Department of National Defence orders them, transferring the licensing and technology to this country as a way to boost Saab’s global production capacity as new orders come in.

NATO’s program to replace the E-3s, known as the Alliance Future Surveillance and Control Capability (iAFSC), involves at least seven participating countries, including Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands.

The partner countries said last November they had decided to drop a plan to buy six Boeing E-7 Wedgetail aircraft as successors to the older Boeing planes after the U.S. abandoned plans to order the E-7 for its own armed forces.

“The goal remains to have other, quieter aircraft operational before 2035,” said Gijs Tuinman, who was the Netherlands’ state secretary for defence at the time. “The withdrawal of the U.S. demonstrates the importance of investing as much as possible in the European industry.”

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