Three of Canada’s biggest oil producers, Suncor Energy SU-T, Cenovus Energy CVE-T and Imperial Oil IMO-T, on Thursday projected higher production in 2025, betting on resilient demand for Canadian crude to U.S. and international markets.
Fuel demand in the United States, the biggest destination for Canadian crude, is expected to rise next year as U.S. industrial activity is likely to get a boost from a cut in borrowing rates, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Calgary-based Suncor forecast 2025 production to be between 810,000 and 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) next year, a 4.4 per cent rise at midpoint compared to projected output for 2024.
Cenovus forecast a 4.4 per cent increase in 2025 crude output, targeting 805,000 to 845,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, primarily driven by the Narrows Lake oil sands asset startup.
Imperial Oil expects a 3.1 per cent production increase.
The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion which has nearly tripled oil flow to Canada’s Pacific Coast from landlocked Alberta, is also encouraging producers to increase output in hopes of shipping more crude to Asian refineries and the U.S. West Coast.
Suncor also forecast a slight rise in refinery throughput volumes to between 435,000 and 450,000 bpd in 2025. It expects refining utilization to be between 93 per cent and 97 per cent.
While Cenovus and Imperial raised 2025 capital spending expectations marginally, Suncor slightly lowered expected capital expenditure for 2025 to the range of C$6.1-billion ($4.31-billion) and C$6.3-billion.
Thursday’s forecast by the Canadian oil firms follows an announcement by Exxon Mobil, the majority owner of Imperial, saying it aims to increase its output by 18 per cent by the end of the decade.
The Canadian firms also said they planned to boost production at current sites while simultaneously pursuing new projects.