People attend CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston, Texas, on March 20, 2024. The annual CERAWeek event begins Monday, with North America embroiled in a trade war that could affect oil, gas and electricity.Callaghan O'Hare/Reuters
Canadian political and business leaders are attending an international energy conference in Houston this week that is taking on heightened importance, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s disruption of long-established trade relationships tosses suppliers such as Canada into uncertainty.
The annual CERAWeek event begins Monday, with North America embroiled in a trade war that could affect oil, gas and electricity, and as Mr. Trump calls for U.S. companies to “drill, baby, drill” against a backdrop of weak crude prices.
It is a fraught time in international relations, not least in the world of energy, and that makes the event a focal point, said Kevin Birn, energy analyst and head of S&P Global’s Centre of Emissions Excellence. S&P Global runs the five-day conference.
“Energy is the nexus of trade, security, economic prosperity, and with the reality that the world is pulling further apart – you’ve got a shooting war in Europe, a shooting war in the Middle East, an increasingly protectionist and almost mercantilist regime in the United States – CERAWeek is an opportunity for everyone to get together and compare what they’re hearing and try to come up with strategies for this new world we’re in,” he said.
Several Canadian government and industry officials are travelling to the event to seek clarity on the President’s tariff threats, and to meet with their counterparts from the United States and elsewhere in hopes of reaching agreements to limit economic damage.
The political officials attending include federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson; Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and her Energy Minister, Brian Jea; Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe; and Ontario Energy Minister Stephen Lecce. Among Canadian business leaders, Enbridge Inc. chief executive officer Greg Ebel, TC Energy CEO François Poirier and Ivanhoe Mines executive co-chair Robert Friedland are scheduled to speak.
They will join dozens of U.S. and international executives and political officials to discuss oil and gas as well clean technologies and investment. They include new U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Luz Elena González, Energy Secretary of Mexico, which is also under tariff threat.
Overhanging the event are oil prices, which have weakened after OPEC and its allies agreed to raise production starting in April. On Friday, U.S. benchmark oil closed at US$67.03 a barrel, down 16 per cent from mid-January.
In Canada, the threat of U.S. tariffs has galvanized public support to diversify export markets. That includes renewed interest in building pipelines that would allow oil and gas to reach markets beyond the United States.
Last week, Mr. Trump injected more uncertainty by imposing his planned 10-per-cent tariff on Canadian oil and gas, then pausing it until April 2.
Canada is by far the largest foreign energy supplier to the U.S. Numerous refineries, especially in the Midwestern states, are designed to process the gooier crude grades from Alberta’s oil sands. Analysts have warned American motorists will face higher pump prices as a result of anti-trade measures.
Alberta’s Ms. Smith had previously sought agreement with the U.S., even meeting with the President at Mar-a-Lago to try to convince him it was in both countries’ best interest to maintain free Canada-U.S. energy trade. At home, she pushed back against retaliatory measures on energy that other Canadian officials supported.
However, when Washington imposed the tariff, the Alberta Premier joined her fellow first ministers in expressing displeasure with Washington, and imposing targeted trade measures.
Ms. Smith said that until the United States comes “back to reality,” Canada should focus its efforts and financial means on building new pipelines to all coasts, to dramatically increase fossil fuels sold to Asia and Europe. There is a spirit of collaboration to get construction under way quickly, she said.
Another theme at this week’s conference, hosted by Pulitzer Prize-winning author and S&P Global vice-chair Daniel Yergin, is the energy transition, and how the shift is expected to take longer than previously thought, Mr. Birn said. Natural gas as a substitute for higher-carbon energy is expected to feature highly in those discussions, he said.