Prime Minister Mark Carney in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on Wednesday. Last fall, the Prime Minister's government set a goal of doubling non-U.S. trade over a decade to $600-billion a year.Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press
Trade diversification is a key pillar of Mark Carney’s economic agenda. Just over a year into his tenure as Prime Minister, statistics suggest the results are mixed so far.
In April, around 31 per cent of the country’s goods exports went to non-U.S. trading partners, Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday. That’s among the highest proportions since 1997, and up about five percentage points since U.S. President Donald Trump began to wage his trade war on Canada in the spring of 2025. In dollar terms, overseas exports have frequently hit new record highs during this tumultuous period.
But the numbers have been flattered by the run-up in the price of gold, a volatile asset class that’s moderated since March. And lately, elevated oil prices are once again boosting trade with the United States, the predominant customer for Canadian crude.
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Foreign trade diversification is making “very nice progress, clearly reflecting some desire by exporters to diversify our economic export engine,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets.
However, Mr. Tal cautioned that the early returns are “low-hanging fruit, and it’s very difficult to continue at this rate for another year.”
Last fall, the Carney government set a goal of doubling non-U.S. trade over a decade to $600-billion a year. Canada has typically shipped around three-quarters of its total goods exports to the U.S. – a major benefit historically, but now seen as a liability as the White House has turned protectionist.
To boost foreign trade, Mr. Carney has been jet-setting across Europe, Asia and the Middle East to deepen those relationships, and the federal government is trying to sign free-trade agreements with India and with South America’s Mercosur trading bloc by the end of the year.
Diversifying trade is easier said than done. Exporters can find it challenging to navigate supply chains, regulations and language barriers in securing new clients overseas – particularly for smaller firms. Canada has nearly 48,000 goods-exporting enterprises, according to Statscan, of which 82 per cent employ fewer than 50 people.
To date, the returns on diversification have been limited. Booming gold prices have helped to lift non-U.S. exports to roughly one-third of Canada’s total in recent months. But after removing gold from the numbers, non-U.S. countries account for about 23 per cent of exports this year, only slightly higher than before the trade war.
An analysis by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce found that although exports to non-U.S. markets jumped by 17 per cent between 2024 and 2025, much of that growth came from existing exporters expanding their reach, rather than new firms entering global markets.
Additionally, the report found that diversification is being driven by a concentrated group of companies, sectors and cities, while many other highly U.S.-integrated regions continue to face limited diversification momentum and weakened economic growth.
“For smaller firms, the constraint is structural because many are embedded in North American supply chains built around proximity, recurring customer relationships, integrated logistics and production specifications that are not easily replicated overseas,” read a recent report from National Bank Financial.
Tuesday’s Statscan report showed that exports to non-U.S. countries fell by 4.8 per cent in April. Spot gold prices have fallen by around 20 per cent since early March. In turn, exports of unwrought gold, silver and platinum plunged by 26 per cent in April, “driven by lower shipments of gold to the United Kingdom,” Statscan said.
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Meantime, exports to the U.S. rose 4.8 per cent in April, a third consecutive monthly increase that was buoyed by crude oil and vehicle shipments. Canada’s merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. expanded to $9.5-billion in April, the largest surplus since February, 2025.
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is up for review on July 1, at which point the member countries can renew the deal for 16 years. That is, however, an unlikely outcome as the countries have said trade talks will extend beyond the review date. If not renewed, the USMCA would remain in force with annual reviews for another 10 years, after which it would expire. Any of the three countries can also withdraw from the agreement with six months’ notice.
Mr. Carney has recently shifted his rhetoric on trade. Speaking in New York last month, he called for a “new partnership” with the U.S. and said Canada is open to more co-operation inside a “Fortress North America” in key industries, including autos, steel and aluminum.
While the U.S. and Mexico have begun formal negotiations over the USMCA, Canada has yet to sit at the bargaining table.
“At the end of the day, we are very close to the U.S.,” Mr. Tal said.