U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement that Washington will not renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in its current form.Rebecca Cook/Reuters
The Trump administration has refused to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, setting the stage for protracted trade negotiations and continuing uncertainty for businesses.
Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, met virtually with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard on Wednesday morning for the six-year review of the continental trade pact.
USMCA wasn’t renewed. What’s next for the North American trade deal?
Mr. LeBlanc and Mr. Ebrard advocated extending the USMCA for another 16 years. Mr. Greer said Washington will not renew the deal.
The American refusal to renew the treaty, which governs some $2.5-trillion worth of trade and defines continental supply chains, does not mean it immediately expires. Under the terms of the USMCA, it remains in effect if it isn’t renewed, but moves into a period of annual reviews for the next 10 years.
“The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form,” Mr. Greer said in a statement.
“The United States will continue to engage with Mexico and Canada to address the Agreement’s shortcomings and our trade deficits with these countries. However, the Agreement remains in force pending resolution of these issues or until the Agreement’s termination,” he said.
If the three countries don’t strike an extension agreement by 2036, the treaty will expire. A 16-year extension can be struck at any time; likewise any of the parties can withdraw from the agreement with six month’s notice.
Washington’s refusal to renew the deal, which U.S. President Donald Trump negotiated during his first term and once called the “fairest, most balanced and beneficial trade agreement” ever, was widely expected.
Still, the decision marks the beginning of a new phase for North American trade, with U.S. tariffs still in place on key Canadian and Mexican industries – including automobiles, industrial metals and wood products – and no clear path forward to strike a deal.
“There’s a bit of a window around the U.S. midterms [in November] where the U.S. administration may be looking for some kind of win,” Steve Verheul, who was Canada’s chief negotiator for the 2017-2018 USMCA negotiations, said on a conference call earlier this week.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, right, talks with Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard amid USMCA talks in Mexico City on April 20.Raquel Cunha/Reuters
“But I think it’s more likely that the discussions will continue beyond the midterms and possibly even into next year,” Mr. Verheul said.
Negotiations for the USMCA review began late, and have so far progressed bilaterally, with Washington dealing with Mexico City and leaving Ottawa on the sidelines. The Mexicans and Americans have held two formal negotiating rounds and have scheduled a third for later this month.
Canada’s trade team, led by Mr. LeBlanc and chief negotiator Janice Charette, have met with Mr. Greer several times in recent months, but have not begun formal negotiations about potential changes to the USMCA.
“In this meeting, I reaffirmed Canada’s unwavering support for the CUSMA and its renewal,” Mr. LeBlanc said in a statement on Wednesday after the meeting with Mr. Greer and Mr. Ebrard, using the Canadian acronym for the deal.
“We agreed on the importance of continuing our discussions and identifying ways to ensure trade and investment frameworks between Canada, the United States and Mexico continue to support North American prosperity and competitiveness. For Canada, this includes substantive discussions with the United States on addressing sectoral tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, autos and lumber,” Mr. LeBlanc said.
The July 1 review date is part of a “sunset clause” that was added when the USMCA replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2020. Washington had demanded a six-year review process to give it opportunities to rejig trade rules and to put pressure on Mexico and Canada to offer up additional concessions.
Now that the review date has arrived, the Trump administration is demanding a number of significant changes to the USMCA before agreeing to extend it for another 16 years.
Washington wants Ottawa and Mexico City to change a number of domestic policies it believes disadvantage American companies.
For Canada, this includes digital streaming regulations and how dairy quotas are allocated as part of the country’s supply management system. It also includes measures the federal government and provinces have taken in response to U.S. tariffs, including new Buy Canadian policies and the removal of U.S. alcohol from many provincial liquor store shelves.
The Trump administration is also pushing for tighter rules of origin, which define how much of a product must come from inside North America to get preferential tariff treatment, and more alignment from Canada and Mexico on external tariffs on China.
In the bilateral negotiations with Mexico City, U.S. officials have said they want to increase the North American content requirement in automobiles to 82 per cent from 75 per cent, and add a new requirement that 50 per cent of a vehicle must be made of U.S. parts.
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“The U.S. government has quite a few issues it wants addressed and has already come forward with some fairly aggressive negotiating positions,” said Patrick Childress, a partner with the U.S. law firm Holland & Knight and a former assistant general counsel at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
“The question for Canada and Mexico will be which of these proposals from the U.S. government is it willing to accept in order to convince the United States government that the USMCA is still a treaty worth having, and to prevent the U.S. government from withdrawing from the treaty altogether,” Mr. Childress said.
Prime Minister Mark Carney shakes hands with Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum after a joint press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City on Sept. 18, 2025.YURI CORTEZ/AFP/Getty Images
Mr. Greer, the top U.S. trade official, has said he wants to strike separate bilateral deals with Mexico and Canada that would be layered on top of the existing trilateral USMCA.
It’s unclear at this point what form these agreements would take, and whether the U.S. plans to strike a deal with Mexico first, given their more advanced trade discussions. Mr. Trump prefers negotiating country-to-country, and the administration may look to use side agreements so it does not have to go back to Congress to approve changes to the trilateral deal.
As it stands, Canada and Mexico are in a relatively privileged position as the U.S. has erected tariffs against most trade partners. When Mr. Trump introduced a global tariff system, he offered a carve-out for Canadian and Mexican products that comply with USMCA rules of origin. That has allowed around 85 per cent of Canadian exports to continue entering the U.S. tariff free.
This exemption remains in place.
At the same time, however, the 25-per-cent to 50-per-cent tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, automobiles and wood products also remain in place – in contravention of the USMCA.
Canadian officials have said getting relief from these sectoral tariffs is their top priority.