U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House after the Supreme Court's ruling that the U.S. President had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, on Feb. 20.Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Corporate bosses are more relaxed about tariffs now than at any time since U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to power unleashed a spate of trade policy chaos.
The share of corporate earnings calls in which tariffs were mentioned has fallen to the lowest level since Mr. Trump won the 2024 election, according to an analysis of transcripts done using financial-intelligence platform AlphaSense.
It’s a telling gauge of how executives, investors and analysts have adapted to the President’s protectionist actions and threats.
The same pattern has played out on both sides of the border, even though companies have plenty of reasons to remain anxious on the trade front.
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which has bound North American trade for more than three decades in one form or another, is set to enter uncharted territory on July 1, when the partners are widely expected to not renew the pact for another 16 years. (If no agreement is reached, Canada, the U.S. and Mexico move to annual reviews for 10 years, after which USMCA expires without a further extension.)
Steep sectoral duties remain in place on key industries such as steel, aluminum and auto manufacturing.
USMCA heads into unpredictable new phase with no extension likely
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump is expected to launch a wave of hefty tariffs next month to replace temporary duties he imposed after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down his earlier emergency tariffs.
That court decision did a lot to ease tariff anxiety in boardrooms and on earnings calls with investors and analysts.
So, too, has Mr. Trump’s reputation for consistently backing away from erratic trade policies when they destabilize markets, otherwise known as the TACO phenomenon, for “Trump always chickens out.”
But it’s also true that companies have another topic they’re much happier to dwell on, namely the artificial-intelligence boom that has sent many stocks soaring. The share of earnings calls featuring discussions about AI is at an all-time high.
That’s even the case in Canada, where business investment in the technology has lagged. The test will be whether Canadian businesses turn that AI talk into action.
Decoder is a weekly feature that unpacks an important economic chart.