Air Canada and WestJet planes at Vancouver International Airport in Richmond, B.C. Canadian carriers have increased capacity to Mexico and Costa Rica and reduced capacity to the United States.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
As snowbird season gets under way, Canadian airlines have reduced capacity to the United States by 10 per cent in the first quarter as carriers adjust to a change in demand driven by anti-American sentiment, aviation consultancy OAG says.
The year-over-year drop in planned seat availability comes as Canadian carriers have increased capacity to Mexico and Costa Rica as well as such destinations as Japan, Britain and France, OAG chief analyst John Grant said.
WestJet Airlines WJAFF reduced U.S. capacity by 19 per cent while Air Canada AC-T and Flair Airlines cut by 7 per cent and 58 per cent, respectively, he said.
Air Canada spokeswoman Angela Mah said the cuts, which began in the second quarter of last year, are to ensure capacity matches projected and actual demand.
Maciej Wilk, chief executive officer of Flair, said the airline is seeing strong demand for sun destinations in Mexico, Jamaica and Dominican Republic. Amid the U.S. reductions, Flair is bolstering its domestic network, adding flights in Atlantic Canada and a Vancouver-Montreal route, he said.
WestJet did not respond to e-mailed questions.
The total reductions in the first three months of 2026 amount to 450,000 seats, or almost 5,000 each day.
International capacity will fall by 1 per cent from a year ago.
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Chris Murray, managing director of institutional research at ATB Capital Markets, said holiday travellers are reacting to the political tensions with the U.S. as well as perceived security risks of travelling there. The slip in demand began in the second quarter of last year, he said.
“Consumers are voting with their pocketbook,” Mr. Murray said by phone.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened Canada’s sovereignty, imposed tariffs on Canadian goods and launched an anti-immigrant campaign whose centrepiece includes arrests and deportations.
“The leisure traveller has now been substituting travel to Florida or Vegas and going to alternate routes,” such as Caribbean or Mexican destinations and off-peak trips to Europe, Mr. Murray said.
He said business travel has not seen the same decline, as capacity to New York, Chicago and Boston has remained steadier.
Las Vegas leads OAG’s list as the leisure spot with the largest drop in Canadian-originated seats, OAG’s Mr. Grant said. The gambling and entertainment destination saw a reduction of 82,000 seats for the coming quarter – 900 each day. Capacity to Orlando is down by 79,000 seats.
“Major hub airports like Newark, [N.J.], Atlanta, and Los Angeles are also among the top 10 in terms of capacity losses,” Mr. Grant said.
Amid the shift away from the U.S., WestJet has increased capacity to Mexico by 40 per cent, adding five new destinations, and expanded its service to Dominican Republic.
Air Canada has boosted capacity to Cancun, Mexico, by 20 per cent, and added new destinations in the country including Monterrey and San Jose del Cabo.
“While this does not fully offset the loss of U.S. snowbird revenue, additional capacity to the Dominican Republic and Italy has also helped to close part of the gap,” Mr. Murray said.