Nvidia and DeepSeek logos are seen in this illustration taken Jan. 27.Dado Ruvic/Reuters
Allen Lau is the co-founder of Wattpad and co-founder and operating partner at Two Small Fish Ventures, which invests in early-stage technology companies, including ones that develop artificial intelligence.
In the past month, everyone I spoke to has been talking about DeepSeek and Nvidia. Is Nvidia facing extinction? Have certain tech giants overspent on AI? Are we seeing a bubble about to burst, or just another public market overreaction? And what about traditional sectors, like industrials, that haven’t yet felt AI’s impact?
Let’s step back. We’ll revisit companies that soared or collapsed during the dot-com crash – and the lessons we can learn. As Mark Twain reputedly said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
The answer is that the reports of Nvidia’s demise are greatly exaggerated, though other companies face greater danger. At the same time, new opportunities are vast because this AI-driven shift could dwarf past tech disruptions.
Before 2000, the dot-com mania hit full speed. High-flying infrastructure players such as Global Crossing – once worth US$47-billion – provided backbone networks. Cisco delivered networking equipment, and Sun Microsystems built servers. However, amid the crash, Global Crossing went bankrupt in January, 2002. Cisco plummeted from more than US$500-billion in market cap to about $100-billion. Sun Microsystems sank from a US$200-billion market cap to under US$10-billion.
They failed or shrank for different reasons. Global Crossing needed huge investments before real revenue arrived. Cisco had decent unit economics but lost pricing power when open networking standards commoditized its gear. Sun Microsystems suffered when cheaper hardware and free, open-source software (such as Linux and Apache) undercut it, and commodity hardware plus cloud computing made its servers irrelevant.
However, these companies did not decline because they were infrastructure providers. They declined because they failed to identify the right business model before their capital ran out or were disrupted by alternatives, including open or free systems, despite having the first-mover advantage.
Meanwhile, other infrastructure players thrived. Amazon, seen mostly as an e-commerce site, earned 70 per cent of its operating profit from Amazon Web Services – hosting startups and big players such as Netflix. AWS eliminated the need to buy hardware and continually cut prices, especially in its earlier years, catalyzing a new wave of businesses and ultimately driving demand while increasing AWS’s revenue.
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In hindsight, the dot-com boom was real – it simply took time for usage to catch up to the hype. By the late 2000s, mobile, social and cloud surged. Internet-native giants (Netflix, Google, etc.) grew quickly with products that truly fit the medium. Early front-runners such as Yahoo! and eBay faded. Keep in mind that Facebook was founded in 2004, well after the crash, and Apple shifted from iPods to the revolutionary iPhone in 2007, which further catalyzed the internet explosion. A first-mover advantage might not always pay off.
The first lesson we learned is that open systems disrupt and commoditize infrastructure. At that time, and we are seeing it again, an army of contributors drove open systems for free, allowing them to out-innovate proprietary solutions.
Companies that compete directly against open systems – note that Nvidia does not – are particularly vulnerable at the infrastructure layer when many open and free alternatives (such as those solely building LLMs without any applications) exist. DeepSeek, for example, was inevitable – this is how technology evolves.
Open standards, open source and other open systems dramatically lower costs, reduce barriers to AI adoption and undermine incumbents’ pricing power by offering free, high-quality alternatives. This “creative destruction” drives technological progress.
In other words, OpenAI is in a vulnerable position, as it resembles the software side of Sun Microsystems – competing with free alternatives such as Linux. It also requires significant capital to build out, yet its infrastructure is rapidly becoming commoditized, much like Global Crossing’s situation. On the other hand, Nvidia has a strong portfolio of proprietary technologies with few commoditized alternatives, making its position relatively secure. Nvidia is not the new Sun Microsystems or Cisco.
Most importantly, the disruption and commoditization of infrastructure also democratize AI innovation. Until recently, starting an AI company often required raising millions – if not tens of millions – just to get off the ground. That is already changing, as numerous fast-growing companies have started and scaled with minimal initial capital. This is leading to an explosion of innovative startups and further accelerating the flywheel.
The next lesson we learned is that the internet was the first technology in human history that was borderless, connected, ubiquitous, real time and free. Its atomic unit is connectivity. During its rise, “the cost of connectivity” steadily declined, while productivity gains from increased connectivity continued to expand demand. The flywheel turned faster and faster, forming a virtuous cycle.
Similarly, AI is the first technology in human history capable of learning, reasoning, creativity, cross-domain functions and decision-making. Crucially, AI’s influence is no longer confined to preprogrammed software running on computing devices; it now extends into all types of machines. Hardware and software, combined with collective learning, enable autonomous cars and other systems like robots to adapt intelligently in real time with little or no predefined instructions.
These breakthroughs are reaching sectors scarcely touched by the internet revolution, including manufacturing and energy. This goes beyond simple digitization; we are entering an era of autonomous operations and, ultimately, autonomous businesses, allowing humans to focus on higher-value tasks.
As with connectivity costs in the internet era, in this AI era, “the cost of intelligence” has been steadily declining. Meanwhile, the value derived from increased intelligence continues to grow, driving further demand – this mirrors how the internet played out and is already happening again for AI. The parallels between these two platform shifts suggest that massive economic value will be created or shifted from incumbents, opening substantial investment opportunities across early-stage ventures, growth-stage private markets and public investments.
Just as the early internet boom heavily focused on infrastructure, a significant amount of capital has been invested in enabling AI technologies. However, over time, economic value shifts from infrastructure to applications – just as it did with the internet.
This doesn’t mean there are no opportunities in AI infrastructure – far from it. Remember, more than half of Amazon’s profits come from AWS. Services, such as AWS, that provide access to AI, will continue to benefit as demand soars. Similarly, Nvidia will continue to benefit from the rising demand. However, many of today’s most-valuable companies – both public and private – are in the application layer or operate full-stack models.
Despite these advancements, this transformation won’t happen overnight, but it will likely unfold more quickly than the internet disruption – which took more than a decade – because many core technologies for rapid innovation are already in place.
AI revenues might appear modest today and don’t yet show up in the public markets. However, if we look closer, some AI-native startups are already growing at an unprecedented pace. The disruption isn’t a prediction; it’s already happening.
As Bill Gates once said, “Most people overestimate what they can achieve in one year and underestimate what they can achieve in ten years.”
The AI revolution is just beginning. The next decade will bring enormous opportunities – and a new wave of tech giants, alongside inevitable casualties.
It’s a land grab – you just need to know which land to seize!