Chinese soldiers march during a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan and the end of World War II, in Tiananmen Square, on Wednesday.Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
Officially, the parade was to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. But its real purpose was to make a statement about present, and stake a claim on the future.
Thousands of soldiers marched in perfect unison and chanted in perfect harmony, as a river of tanks, missiles and autonomous vehicles rolled by Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, while aircraft flew overhead.
Other countries put on military spectacles, but this was on a whole other level. Beijing used the commemoration of 1945 to remind the world how much has changed since 1945.
It was also a reminder of what hasn’t changed.
Military power still matters – ask the Ukrainians. And military power is based on technological and industrial power. What China lacked 80 years ago is what it was showing off now.
The Allies won the Second World War because we massively outproduced Germany, Italy and Japan. Our engineers and factories beat theirs. Our technological level matched theirs, and we pumped out far more tanks, planes, ships and guns. Canada alone produced more trucks than Nazi Germany.
So where do things stand today?
In 1995, the United States was still No. 1 in manufacturing, accounting for almost 24 per cent of the planet’s manufacturing value added, according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization. Japan was second at 12.6 per cent and Germany was third at 8.4 per cent. In fourth place, China was responsible for 4.9 per cent of global industrial output. Canada, at 2.2 per cent, was in 10th place.
Over the next three decades, the picture flipped. By 2023, China was in top spot, as the source of nearly 32 per cent of global manufacturing. The U.S. had fallen to 15 per cent, while Japan (6.6 per cent), Germany (4.6 per cent) and the rest of Europe had suffered even more of a loss of industrial heft. Canada dropped to 1 per cent of global manufacturing.
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The Moscow-Beijing relationship underwent an even sharper shift in power. In the early 1980s, the Soviet Union and its Eastern European satellites accounted for 20 per cent of global industrial output. Developing South and East Asia – including China, South Korea, Vietnam and others – combined for just 5 per cent. That was less than Latin America.
Moscow was once Beijing’s technological and industrial big brother. No longer. Today, Russia’s industrial output is just 1.3 per cent of the global total – 25 times less than China.
None of this would matter in a perpetually peaceful world. In principle, there’s nothing inherently bad about these shifts. Stuff is being made in places where labour is cheaper, which benefits Western consumers with lower-cost computers, furniture, cars and phones.
But what happens if our world is not one of perpetual peace, love and respect for sovereign borders? Again, just ask the Ukrainians.
Mao tried to instantly industrialize China during the Great Leap Forward from 1958-62, and the result of a policy of ideology over thinking was a countryside dotted with useless backyard steel furnaces and a massive famine that killed millions. China’s recent decades of development have been considerably more successful.
In 2024, China produced 1 billion tonnes of steel. That was more than the rest of the world, and 12 times as much as the U.S.
Last year, China was responsible for 54.6 per cent of global shipbuilding. Japan and South Korea combined for another 40 per cent. The U.S. accounted for just 0.04 per cent.
China also built 31.3 million cars and commercial vehicles in 2024. Canada produced 1.3 million, while the U.S. turned out 10.6 million. Back in 1999, the figures for China, Canada and the U.S. were 1.8 million, 3.1 million and 13 million, respectively.
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It’s a remarkable story, but also a warning. In our world, where the strong impose upon the weak and military power is liable to be used to effectuate such impositions, it is dangerous to fall into a position of industrial, and hence military, inferiority. Technology has advanced over 80 years; human behaviour rather less so.
The idea that the U.S. (and Europe and Canada) needs to think seriously about how to maintain and strengthen key parts of the domestic industrial base is not madness. Becoming world leaders in financial engineering, while outsourcing actual engineering, isn’t a viable long-term strategy.
But the Trump administration, by levying tariffs on friends and foes alike, and building walls against the mutual gains from trade with allies such as Canada, is moving in entirely the wrong direction. It may hamstring many U.S. industries.
In its impulsiveness and thoughtlessness, Make America Great Again isn’t emulating China’s successes. It feels a lot more like the Great Leap Forward.