Activists participate in a demonstration outside the COP30 venue in Belem, Brazil, on Thursday.Fernando Llano/The Associated Press
John Rapley is a contributing columnist for The Globe and Mail. He is an author and academic whose books include Why Empires Fall and Twilight of the Money Gods.
The COP30 climate conference got under way this week in Brazil under something of a cloud. Boycotted by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has called climate change “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world,” it’s attracted less than half the attendees of the one two years ago. Whether pressured by Washington, or seizing licence from it, many countries, Canada among them, have backpedalled on their climate policies as politicians who say we can’t afford the luxury of solving climate change gain influence.
With the target of keeping global warming to below 1.5 degrees C having already been breached, it’s therefore looking like the battle to stop climate change has been lost. Based on current trends, the world could warm by 2.8 degrees C, a level which would cause climate breakdown. Extreme weather will worsen, and there will be more events like the recent hurricane that devastated Jamaica. It would seem the world is sleepwalking into a catastrophe.
However, outside the West, and especially in developing countries, the energy transition is, if anything, speeding up. Ironically, Western reversals may be helping, since falling Western demand has caused prices for renewable energy hardware, such as solar panels and electric vehicles, to fall even further. And the reason developing countries are so eager to switch to renewable energy is that it is cheaper and local resources are abundant.
What to know about COP30 and Canada’s role in the annual UN climate talks
Protesters force their way into COP30 venue as security barricades entrance
By abandoning fossil-fuel-generated electricity for solar, poor countries not only ensure the security of supply – they’ll never have to worry about another shipping closure hampering fuel imports, as happened during the 2008 global financial crisis and again during the COVID-19 lockdowns – but they reduce their import bills. Moreover, because they’re still in the process of building their energy infrastructure, there are no expensive costs involved in reorienting production.
This, in turn, will reshape the whole world economy, regardless of what Western leaders want. By 2035, 80 per cent of global demand growth for energy will come from countries with abundant solar resources, and it will make no sense for them to build natural gas- or oil-fired generation. So, while Canada’s oil patch enjoys good prospects for the time being, it also looks to be an industry with a sell-by date. Recent modelling by the International Energy Agency found that while the retreat from climate activism in Western countries may delay the peak of global oil and gas consumption by a few years, under no scenario will it continue indefinitely.
Instead, the future world economy will be built largely around renewable energy (and nuclear, which is enjoying a revival). Therefore, the principal effect of Mr. Trump’s climate denialism hasn’t been to end the global energy transition, but to abandon the rapidly growing renewable-energy sector to China. China has been only too happy to fill that breach, replacing markets it has lost in Western countries for its solar panels and EVs with new ones in the developing world, where sales of its products are exploding.
Opportunities will abound in his new economy, but if we want to seize them, we’ll have no choice but to deepen relations with China. It’s probably too late to try competing with Chinese companies in the production of EVs or solar panels – they’re just too far ahead for us to catch up – but partnering with them to improve and tailor their products is another matter. Nevertheless, that confronts Canada with a dilemma: Does our country board this train to the future and risk deepening its rift with the United States, or does it not rock the boat and stick with what worked in the past?
World leaders, activists, experts and many more are in Brazil for this year's annual United Nations climate talks, known as COP30.
The Associated Press
That’s a challenging decision. One can easily envision an irate Mr. Trump slapping yet more tariffs on, say, Canadian auto parts. But the future of the Canadian automobile industry already looks in doubt, since the Trump administration seems determined to freeze out Canadian imports, while most of the future demand for automobiles in the world economy will come from developing countries, which are moving fast toward electrification.
Although green energy is still an emergent sector in Canada, it’s also a dynamic one, including industries such as batteries and mining. Dynamic new businesses are already seizing opportunities abroad. Take, for instance, Solar Panda. Created by Canadian entrepreneur Andy Keith, the company has now installed several hundred thousand nano-grids on rooftops across Kenya, and is looking to expand operations into Zambia, Senegal and Benin.
And Canada’s strengths in finance could be leveraged to exploit opportunities in developing countries. Startups there often say that what they want more than anything is partnership with venture capitalists from Western countries, which could compete with China in helping them source investors.
Given that Ottawa is looking to develop new markets and new industries, the potential that lies in grasping this future is great. But future creation may involve some present destruction, and that’s seldom an easy choice.