Some experts predict Canada's population could start declining in less than 20 years. This poses a challenge to those whose job is to feed people.CASEY STEFFENS
Sylvain Charlebois is a professor of food distribution and policy and the director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast.
Canada’s population grew by more than one million for the first time in its history in 2022. Demographic growth will help grocers and the rest of the food supply chain, with food expenditures increasing by at least $3.5-billion annually, or an average of $3,500 for each new mouth. Good news for the industry. But the party won’t last.
For the longest time, demographic experts have been concerned about the planet’s overpopulation. Most of them are now more concerned about a declining population. Some are even talking about a demographic implosion, suggesting the planet will never reach nine billion inhabitants. Some experts predict our population could start declining in less than 20 years. Canada’s population could peak within that time frame as well. If your job is to feed people, this type of decline presents a challenge.
This is not an insurmountable challenge, to be sure. But the food industry needs to adapt to it if it is to thrive in this new societal landscape.
In most areas of the world, including Canada, people are having fewer children. About 75 per cent of the world has a birth rate below replacement levels. Canada is relying heavily on immigration to support its demographic ambitions, but we will reach a point when that option will no longer be there, either. Despite generous social programs to support families, many expect birth rates or replacement rates to continue to decline. There isn’t any dominant factor to explain this trend. Citizens everywhere are just having fewer children for numerous reasons.
What’s more, the demographic gap between the young and the not-so-young is growing. The number of people between the ages of 25 and 64, those who significantly contribute to our economy, will continue to shrink.
Canada saw record-breaking population increase in 2022 due to migration
Therefore, the size of our population won’t be the only challenge for our food industry. The age of the population should also be the focus. The food industry needs to embrace the massive social change that is about to hit the world – for therein is also an opportunity.
Not having children is not necessarily a problem, but not planning for it certainly is. Pets, who also need food, are the new children. There are over 16 million pet cats and dogs in Canada. Since the start of the pandemic, the number of pet owners has increased by at least 15 per cent, according to some reports. Pets are less costly and are arguably less life-changing than children. The commitment is simply different in many ways. For the food industry, that is certainly an area of tremendous growth to consider. With fewer children will come a greater number of pets.
The food industry will need to come to terms with a declining market and fewer physically-abled workers. With fewer stomachs to fill, not having enough farmland should be less of a concern. Since 40 per cent of the Canadian population lives in the major cities of Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary, we need to figure out a way to repurpose our rural areas.
In processing, distribution and retail, we see the same challenges. With both a shrinking and aging market, health and convenience will likely drive sales even more in years to come. We have seen nothing yet.
And as for shrinkflation, since older people tend to eat less, this trend of seeing smaller quantities with higher prices is far from over. The food industry will benefit from continuing its quest to increase sales with less volume. Precut, preprepared, precooked, pre-this and pre-that will be the main way to maintain levels of sales.
So, if you think we’re not going to have enough food for everyone, think again. The world will continue to produce enough food, and to deal with the declining customer base, the industry has solutions including better precision agriculture, more sustainable practices, automation, the use of artificial intelligence and sound distribution practices, which will improve over time.