An oilfield pumpjack and wind turbines near Trochu, Alta. in July, 2022.Larry MacDougal/The Canadian Press
Chris Severson-Baker is executive director of the Pembina Institute.
Daniel Rotman is director general of Équiterre.
Patricia Fuller is president and chief executive of the International Institute for Sustainable Development.
Earlier this year, Vingroup chairman Pham Nhat Vuong told shareholders the Vietnamese conglomerate had abandoned plans to build the country’s largest LNG power plant, a 4.8-gigawatt project in Haiphong.
Instead, he said: “We have already submitted a proposal to the government for wind, solar energy and a battery energy storage system.”
The European Union is doubling down on clean energy as the path to energy security, with measures including electricity tax cuts and boosting investments in renewables. In Europe, Australia and New Zealand, electric vehicle sales are up 27, 89 and 263 per cent since last year. More than 40 countries, from Egypt to Bangladesh to the Netherlands, are rationing energy – closing schools, limiting travel, and curbing power use in public buildings.
These dramatic changes are driven by the war in the Middle East and the resulting spike in oil and gas prices. Changes like these get locked in – once Vietnam builds a massive renewable energy plant, they won’t go back to LNG when the Strait of Hormuz opens. Nobody wants to wait around for the next inevitable price shock.
South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung sums it up: “Our future will be at serious risk if we continue to rely on fossil fuels.”
Countries meet in Colombia for summit aimed at transitioning away from fossil fuels
These events have another thing in common – Canadian politicians haven’t noticed them. Despite our oft-stated dream of becoming an “energy superpower,” we Canadians seem oblivious to the monumental changes in how the world is buying and using energy.
Like generals fighting the last war, our national debate is still dominated by fossil fuel exports. We’re still building LNG terminals and oil pipelines. While Canada’s auto strategy offered some support for EV buyers, Ottawa is still providing a half-billion-dollar taxpayer subsidy to a single diesel-engine pickup manufacturer.
Last week, Ottawa signed an accord with Alberta that watered down Trudeau-era carbon policies and paved the path for a new oil pipeline.
It can be difficult to notice all this when the world’s loudest politics are on our doorstep. The United States is aggressively out of step with global trends on energy policy. The Trump administration opened protected federal land to drilling, rolled back fuel consumption standards for vehicles and cancelled major renewable power projects. It’s unclear whether this is a misguided economic vision or just a desire to reverse the priorities of the previous administration. Regardless, the name of the game in the U.S. is still fossil fuels, and American consumers are paying more for everything as a direct result, as oil and gas companies take advantage of higher international prices.
Opinion: Canada must remember that the future is electricity, not fossil fuels
In 2025, Chinese drivers put 37,000 electric vehicles on the road every day. India is targeting 30-per-cent EV use by 2030. In three straight editions of its Energy Security Scenarios (2023, 2025, 2026), European supermajor Shell describes global oil demand peaking within the next decade and entering permanent decline in every scenario. Countries aren’t just doing the right thing on climate change. This is about shielding people from price shocks – energy security, pure and simple.
All of that happened before the war in the Middle East. The conflict is sharply accelerating a transition that was already moving rapidly.
Where does that leave Canada?
We must not follow the Trump administration in doubling down on fossil fuels. Instead, we must heed the nations we hope to sell oil and gas to and realize they’re working hard to stop buying them. Energy companies make the superficial argument that Canada is a secure supplier in a chaotic world, but Canada doesn’t set global prices. Our oil and gas got expensive too when Russia invaded Ukraine, and when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. The smart play for drivers, utilities and nations around the world is to rely on domestically generated electricity, be it hydroelectricity, wind or solar. It’s no use being a secure supplier of a product people no longer need because cheaper alternatives are available.
Canada itself, and not just our oil and gas companies, risks a massive strategic miscalculation in all this. We risk a future where the world economy has passed us by. Taxpayers’ dollars should not be spent subsidizing oil and gas infrastructure that could well become stranded assets. The federal government should concentrate on what’s best for all Canadians. That means EVs, heat pumps and low-cost renewable electricity.
Canadians need our Prime Minister to understand the scope and urgency of the challenge to electrify the nation. We must keep pace with the global energy transition – otherwise, Canada’s energy crisis may just be getting started.