GFL CEO Patrick Dovigi.Sammy Kogan/The Canadian Press
Twenty-four hours after Patrick Dovigi announced the largest takeover his waste disposal company has ever attempted, the chief executive officer of GFL Environmental Inc. did an interview to explain the math behind its proposed $5.4-billion purchase of Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp.
He kept getting interrupted by phone calls from institutional shareholders who also wanted the CEO to take them through a deal that knocked back GFL’s stock price by 10 per cent, erasing $2-billion in value.
Mr. Dovigi was glad to oblige.
What became clear is despite compelling numbers, investors are still catching up with what GFL’s latest acquisition means for the CEO’s drive to build North America’s leading garbage company.
In a rapid-fire pitch, Mr. Dovigi told some of GFL’s largest shareholders that buying Calgary-based Secure, the dominant energy waste disposal platform in Western Canada, will boost all of GFL’s key financial metrics.
The deal will improve free cash flow and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), and it will mean GFL hits performance targets a year ahead of its previous forecast.
Investors aren’t so happy about GFL’s return to deal-making
Mr. Dovigi also justified the Secure bid by highlighting the potential for $25-million annually in synergies from merging the company’s operations with GFL’s. Analyst Kevin Chiang at CIBC Capital Markets said the CEO’s estimate is conservative, and projects annual costs savings will hit $75-million. The extra cash would further increase cash flow and EBITDA.
And Mr. Dovigi told investors he took note of their past concerns with GFL’s debt levels. The company will pay 80 per cent of Secure’s purchase price by issuing shares, which keeps borrowing to a minimum.
Mr. Dovigi’s back story includes being drafted as a goalie by the NHL’s Edmonton Oilers. While the 46-year-old still looks like he could stonewall the Anaheim Ducks - the Oilers’ first-round playoff foe this year - the skills that made him a billionaire include being a math savant and relentless in pursuit of his goals.
Once he finished a run through Secure’s numbers, Mr. Dovigi gave his institutional investors a history lesson that explained the mindset of a CEO who refuses to lose.
Secure’s executive team created the current version of the company in 2021, when they bought rival Tervita Corp. To win Competition Bureau approval for the acquisition, Secure was forced to sell part of the business to Waste Connections Inc. for $1.1-billion. Waste Connections is one of GFL’s major rivals.
Five years ago, GFL wanted to buy the assets Secure was selling, but didn’t have the financial firepower to match Waste Connections, Mr. Dovigi said.
Fast forward to 2026, when Mr. Dovigi has support from private equity backers at BC Partners and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan. They give GFL the muscle it needed to buy the entire Alberta company, rather than the rump it spun off to appease regulators.
GFL shares slump 10% on $5.4-billion acquisition of Calgary-based Secure Waste
Beyond the numbers, institutional shareholders struggled to get their heads around GFL buying Secure, which focuses on providing environmental services, less than two years after spinning off a stake in its $8-billion environmental services division to focus on solid waste management.
Mr. Dovigi explained the seeming contradiction as an issue of semantics. In Western Canada, the most lucrative and fastest-growing waste business is taking out the industrial trash produced by energy companies. It compliments GFL’s existing solid waste operations in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan.
The overlap wasn’t as critical to Eastern Canada and U.S. environmental services operations that GFL carved out in January, 2025. And GFL kept a 44-per-cent stake in the division, along with an option to repurchase the business.
As a CEO with operations across North America, and an eye on events in the Middle East, Mr. Dovigi said he expects the continent’s strongest economic growth will come from Alberta, as energy companies boost production for customers around the world.
Two of Secure’s largest shareholders – fund managers Angelo, Gordon & Co. LP and Solus Alternative Asset Management LP – committed to voting their 20-per-cent stake in the company in favour of the takeover and becoming major GFL shareholders.
However, another major investor in Secure gave Mr. Dovigi a backhanded compliment by saying GFL’s bid undervalued the company.
On Monday, Abrams Capital Management LP announced it would vote its 10-per-cent holding against the GFL takeover. The Boston-based fund said Secure is “a uniquely well-positioned business with significant long-term potential.”
The dissident shareholder in Secure is using the same math as Mr. Dovigi, along with the same upbeat outlook on Western Canada’s economic prospects.