Let’s start with the reasons for optimism.
As U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin prepare to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, a Russian invasion that expected victory in a matter of days is now in its fourth bloody year. Moscow is believed to have lost around one million troops killed and wounded, yet roughly 80 per cent of Ukraine remains under the control of the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The war has become bloody, grinding stalemate. Small Russian tactical advances over the past year have not changed the strategic big picture, though they have contributed mightily to the body count.
Mr. Trump holds stronger cards than any previous American President sitting down with a Soviet or Russian leader. The Cold War era of a parity of forces is a distant memory; the U.S. and European economies are massively larger than Russia’s. Moscow has few friends, its army has turned out to be less powerful than advertised and its most important exports, oil and gas, are mostly no longer welcome in Europe. The United States and allies have sanctioned Russia, and Mr. Trump is now brandishing sanctions against those countries – such as India – that buy Russian oil.
Hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian assets are also frozen in Western banks. So far, they have not been seized. But they could be.
And further upping the pressure on Mr. Putin, Mr. Zelensky has said that he is willing to accept an unconditional cease-fire.
Analysis: Nuclear threats, Ukraine’s fate cast long shadow as Putin, Trump prepare to meet
If Mr. Trump presses these advantages, it greatly raises the odds that Mr. Putin will have to agree to stop the war.
Mr. Trump forced the European Union and others to accept high tariffs by threatening even higher tariffs. If he puts something similar to the Russian leader – “Vladimir, take the cease-fire now, or I and the rest of NATO will keep ratcheting up help for Ukraine and sanctions on you” – the Alaska summit could be a first step to a cease-fire.
And end to fighting would likely mean freezing the two armies where they are. Territory occupied by Russian forces would remain under their control, but without recognizing those territories as part of Russia. Ukraine would not join NATO, but it would continue to receive vast financial and military aid, along with security guarantees.
This is not everything Ukraine wants – it wants and deserves the return of all of its land – but it’s an outcome that Ukraine, and the West, can live with. An independent Ukraine in control of 80 per cent of its territory, with recognition that the remaining 20 per cent is de jure Ukrainian even if under occupation, is a major victory.
A freezing of the conflict along current lines is also not what Mr. Putin wants – he wants to conquer even more territory and he wants whatever is left as a vassal state. But faced with enough pressure, he might have no choice but to yield.
Those are the reasons for optimism that Friday’s summit could be a step toward ending the war, and ending it in a way that would be mostly good for Ukraine and the Western alliance.
The reasons for pessimism? They start and end with one man: Donald Trump.
Europe and Ukraine present counterproposals to U.S. ahead of Trump-Putin talks
Mr. Trump’s impulse, and that of the chief MAGA ideologue, U.S. Vice-President JD Vance, has been to treat Ukraine not as an ally and strategic interest, but as unwanted burden and easy mark. Earlier this year, Mr. Trump publicly attacked Mr. Zelensky at the White House, acting as if the Russian invasion was somehow his fault. Kyiv also signed an odd revenue-sharing deal, giving the U.S. a stake in Ukraine’s mineral wealth.
On Sunday, Mr. Vance said on Fox News that, while Russia was wrong to have invaded and he was hopeful for a peace deal, the U.S. had already decided to no longer “fund” Ukraine.
“America, we’re done with the funding of the Ukraine war business,” Mr. Vance said. “Americans, I think, are sick of continuing to send their money, their tax dollars, to this particular conflict.” He added that, “if the Europeans want to step up and actually buy the weapons from American producers, we’re okay with that. But we’re not going to fund it ourselves any more.”
The steady signal to Mr. Putin is that this White House wants a quick political win by announcing the end of the war, and it isn’t too particular about how it ends. And if it doesn’t end quickly, the Trump administration could wash its hands of Ukraine, which is a Russian dream.
As a result, Mr. Putin has every reason to be charming in Alaska while agreeing to nothing, in the hope that, in frustration at a lack of progress, Mr. Trump strikes out at the weaker party: Ukraine.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Sunday that the Alaska meeting is “about testing Putin, how serious he is on bringing this terrible war to an end.”
But from Mr. Putin’s perspective, the meeting, and the days and weeks to come, could be about testing Mr. Trump. Will the President react to a Russian nyet by doubling down on support for Ukraine? Or the opposite?
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that Kyiv 'values and fully supports' a joint statement by major European leaders that welcomed U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to try to end the war, while emphasizing the need to pressure Russia and provide security guarantees for Kyiv, ahead of the planned meeting between Mr. Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Reuters