More severe El Niño patterns as a result of climate change are hiking up food prices.Chris Young/The Canadian Press
Christina Caron is an economist and executive whose career has included positions in the federal public service, four think tanks and the offices of two Canadian Prime Ministers.
Food prices have risen significantly faster than other prices over the past decade, both in Canada and elsewhere. Monday’s inflation numbers showed that prices of food purchased in stores rose by 4.3 per cent over the past year, compared with 3.1 per cent for nonfood items. A confluence of pressures is creating a perfect storm for further rapid price hikes.
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El Niño climate patterns have been increasing in both frequency and intensity, as a result of climate change. There is consensus among the world’s leading meteorological organizations that this year’s El Niño – dubbed a Super El Niño – is likely to be a very strong, potentially unprecedented event, persisting from now through spring 2027. It will produce hotter than normal temperatures across virtually the entire globe, accompanied by elevated risk of drought, storms, extreme rainfall, flooding and heatwaves. Already this week, Europe is sizzling under a severe heat wave with temperatures nearing and even exceeding 40 C in many regions.
The effects of El Niño are layered on top of climate change, which has already raised baseline temperatures and heightened weather volatility, amplifying climate extremes and existing vulnerabilities. At present, one quarter of Canada and half of the U.S. are experiencing either drought or abnormal dryness.
El Niño is expected to have major implications for agricultural production worldwide, mirroring the impact of previous El Niño events that were accompanied by failed harvests and livestock losses. The UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) points to a high probability of drought across major producing regions during key growing periods.
Higher temperatures reduce agricultural productivity, with crop yields declining by six to 10 per cent for every one degree Celsius of warming, even without drought. El Niño events intensify the severity and duration of heatwaves, which can cut agricultural productivity in half. For most major agricultural crops, yield declines begin to occur above 30 C. Livestock begin to experience heat stress at temperatures above 25 C, and heatwaves have led to mortality rates of 10 to 24 per cent among dairy and beef cattle. Marine heatwaves have also caused mass mortality events among fish and shellfish, both wild and farmed.
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Canada’s recent experience with heatwaves is instructive. The 2021 heat wave in British Columbia (considered to have been 150 times more likely because of climate change) had catastrophic impacts on provincial food production, in addition to its human toll of 619 heat-related deaths and its catalytic role in subsequent wildfires. We saw 660,000 chicken and turkey deaths and egg production among surviving birds dropped by up to 70 per cent. There was mass mortality among shellfish, including up to 70 per cent of farmed shellfish in some areas. Fruit production fell sharply, by 20 to 30 per cent for pears, plums, nectarines and cherries, and more than 50 per cent for raspberries, and many orchards experienced significant tree loss. Vegetables were also affected, with broccoli production down 59 per cent, and some vegetable crops could not be harvested because of unsafe temperatures in greenhouses.
More recently, prolonged drought in western North America has resulted in cattle herds being reduced to their lowest numbers in decades, contributing to double-digit increases in beef prices – 77 per cent for striploin over the past two years.
Because El Niño is a worldwide phenomenon, it can be expected to affect prices of imported as well as domestically produced food. About 50 per cent of vegetables and 75 per cent of fruits consumed in Canada are imported, half from the U.S., largely California. California has been experiencing drought or abnormally dry conditions for several years, which could well be exacerbated by higher temperatures, affecting crop yields. Central America, another key source of Canadian fruit imports, is currently assessed by the FAO as at high risk of agricultural drought because of El Niño. And significant declines in rice production are anticipated in parts of Asia.
The effects of El Niño and climate change are magnified by the impact of the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which have triggered a system-wide shock to commodity markets, spiking prices for fertilizer and fuel, key agricultural inputs, as well as hiking freight and insurance costs. Because of anticipated lags in restoring capacity and supply chains, the effects of these events are expected to persist well into 2027 and possibly longer, even under optimistic scenarios. Even modest reductions in fertilizer application can lead to significant declines in crop yields.
Climate change is increasingly acting to reduce productivity, erode living standards and drive up the prices of essentials. Food production and prices are on the front line. This won’t change until we collectively get serious about climate action.