The Deltaport container terminal at Roberts Bank, which has been proposed as the terminus for a new oil pipeline from Alberta. Developing infrastructure and building for the future is the clearest path to growth, writes Greg Greer.Jennifer Gauthier/Reuters
Greg Greer is head of fixed income, currencies and commodities at ATB Cormark Capital Markets.
Wait for clarity amidst market volatility, or act on an opportunity. Canadian businesses are consistently challenged by this choice, and the first six months of 2026 were no different.
The first half of the year saw the continuing themes of trade disputes, geopolitical conflict, inflation and energy volatility dominating the headlines. It’s clear that a state of uncertainty will continue to steadily drum, and companies will need to find comfort in disciplined action during this new normal.
However, behind the headlines, Canada holds some distinct advantages that offer potential growth and investment opportunities through the remainder of 2026 and beyond.
Long-term borrowing costs in this country have remained stable, and the participation of global investors in Canadian-dollar bond issues indicates that Canada remains a safe destination for capital. The Canadian dollar has weakened because of global uncertainty and interest rate differentials, but it has been an orderly decline and one that can be helpful in times of trade disruption and dislocation.
While the energy sector could be said to present the most challenges, it also holds the greatest opportunities. For energy, the conflict in the Middle East has made volatility the standard operating model. To stay up to date, traders must focus on real-time developments at sea, storage levels and shipping channels, while comparing these to the veracity of political rhetoric, to make calls on energy pricing and supply.
For Canadian producers that have been actively monitoring events, turbulence has provided them an opportunity to use the increased cash-flow to invest in new opportunities and strengthen their balance sheets.
Significantly, the continuing conflict in the Middle East has demonstrated the importance of maintaining a secure global supply. This positions Canada well: We have a significant resource base that ensures reliable supply and prime access to the U.S., the largest global consumer. However, because of constraints in existing infrastructure and market access, we are unable to take full advantage of the increased demand across the world.
This needs to change, and it is encouraging to see a renewed alignment between federal and provincial governments to address these challenges. The expansion of the energy sector offers the strongest opportunity for Canada. While the development of infrastructure such as pipelines and expansion of liquefied natural gas exports won’t have near-term impact, building for the future is the clearest path to growth.
Crucially, the momentum from growing governmental support is coinciding with an advantageous financing window. Canada is known as a stable and reliable partner. That reputation, along with global demand for energy and other key commodities, provides an opportunity for increased investment and expanded export capacity – generating benefits across the economy.
The current Canadian bond market offers a solid foundation from which to build. Despite periods of market anxiety over energy pricing, geopolitical conflict and trade, Canadian bond yields have largely returned to levels from the beginning of the year. That suggests a predictable and supportive landscape for investors and issuers alike.
The more than $33-billion invested so far this year in foreign-issuer Canadian-dollar bonds demonstrates that there is capital available to invest. The approximately $58-billion invested by non-residents in Canadian securities indicates their confidence in Canada’s economy.
A cornerstone to the investment environment is the Bank of Canada and its monetary policy, which has kept short-term interest rates low and core inflation near the 2-per-cent target. While also enhancing our national credibility, it helps to stabilize long-term borrowing costs that are key to most major projects.
It’s important to note that these conditions indicate an opportune financing window, not conditions for growth. Contained inflation and investor demand demonstrate that Canadian companies and governments have a credible basis for committing capital to major projects. Capitalizing on this opportunity depends on the execution that moves from intergovernmental agreements to shovels in the ground.
In unpredictable times, one might be tempted to wait for stability on trade, inflation or geopolitics. However, it remains evident we must accept that uncertainty has become a permanent feature of our business environment. This is the time to put financing in place, identify and manage areas of exposure and break ground on projects with a longer-term, strategic mindset.
Clarity will remain elusive. Headlines will continue to move markets. The more important question is whether Canadian businesses are ready to use the opportunities those markets provide. Canada is entering the second half of 2026 from a position of credibility, diversification and growing confidence. With the right preparation and a greater sense of urgency, that position can serve as the basis for stronger and more durable growth.