U.S. President Donald Trump has called for NATO members to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Nathan Howard/Reuters
Donald Trump is sounding more and more like Baghdad Bob.
The Iranian regime and its military forces have been “obliterated,” the U.S. President said on Monday – and then he called on the rest of the world to urgently assist him in stopping said obliterated regime’s obliterated forces from continuing their blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Mr. Trump said Iran’s mine-laying ships are all at the bottom of the ocean – and then he demanded that Europe, Japan, South Korea and even China “come and help us” open the Strait. He also described the the dangerous waters as a place where things are “in very good shape.”
European leaders rebuff Trump’s calls for military help in Strait of Hormuz
Baghdad Bob – actual name Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf – was the Iraqi minister of information during the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq. Also known as Comical Ali, he became famous for press conferences featuring easily disproved claims. In his final appearance, he mocked the idea of American troops ever entering Baghdad, even as images of American troops entering Baghdad appeared on TV screens across the world.
The war against Iran has gone as almost everyone expected, except Ballroom Donnie. That has forced the administration to tell increasingly tall tales.
It started with the White House insisting that this war is not a war. It has escalated from there.
The U.S. and Israeli air forces are vastly superior, and have been able to hit major Iranian targets at will. But Iran has fought back by threatening slow-moving tankers at the Persian Gulf’s narrow choke point.
The target is the global economy. And the gas tank on Joe Lunchbucket’s F-150.
Several U.S. allies said on Monday they had no immediate plans to send ships to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, rebuffing a request by U.S. President Donald Trump for military support to keep the vital waterway open.
Reuters
Iran did not aim at these when the U.S. and Israel attacked last year. It also agreed to a ceasefire once the Americans and Israelis decided that was in their interests. But this time around, with Mr. Trump having opened the war by killing the Supreme Leader and calling for the regime’s overthrow, the Islamic Republic found itself on what Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese philosopher of war, called “death ground.”
When you tell your enemy that your resort to war is not about seeking certain concessions, but rather annihilation, they will spare no effort in fighting back. A regime whose existence is at stake will burn all bridges.
The Gulf states warned the Trump administration against starting this war, because it was obvious how Iran would respond. As predicted, it has used drones and mines – small, cheap, easy to deploy, hard to find – to target the six countries on the other side of the Persian Gulf, which collectively constitute the world’s largest oil exporter, and to prevent them from exporting oil through the narrow waters of the Strait of Hormuz.
What to know about the challenges of reopening the Strait of Hormuz
The strategic aim is higher oil prices and economic pain, which it hopes will push everyone from American allies to American voters to demand that the Trump administration back down.
The gas pump is the global economy’s Achilles heel, and Mr. Trump’s.
On Monday, Mr. Trump crowed about how he could take out Iran’s main oil export terminal on Kharg Island “on five minutes notice.” That’s true. What he didn’t explain is why he hasn’t.
Despite the Iranian blockade of Gulf oil, large-scale Iranian oil exports from Kharg are not being stopped by the U.S.
Why is Washington allowing Iran to earn windfall oil profits from Tehran’s blockade of its neighbours? Why isn’t the blockader under blockade? For the same reason that Washington has abruptly loosened sanctions on Russian oil: Less oil supply raises prices, while more supply lowers it.
The U.S. has fought five major wars since the Korean War, including the current conflict. Only one was brought to a successful conclusion: the 1990-91 Gulf War.
President George H.W. Bush presided over a country that was economically and militarily stronger than the U.S. is today. The Berlin Wall had fallen, the Soviet Union was on the verge of collapse, European allies had not yet disarmed, and China was poor and weak. And yet Washington sought international approval through the United Nations, built a coalition (including Canada), and had a clear strategic objective – the removal of invading Iraqi forces from Kuwait – that was significant but limited.
All the tactics of war – all the troops and planes and bombs – were in service of a coherent, achievable strategic goal, which was itself aligned with U.S. interests.
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The current war is the opposite. It features remarkable feats of American military technology, but it’s difficult to see to what end. There are of course upsides in further weakening a weak Iran, but the many downsides seem to have been ignored.
And the definition of victory? Mr. Trump said last week that the war would end when he felt it in his bones.
Iran is run by autocrats who are patient and know how to play chess. Mr. Trump is no chess grandmaster, and he is not patient.
This war may end with Mr. Trump having to back down, leaving the global economy damaged and U.S. standing in the Middle East diminished. Or worse: Mr. Trump may call the Iranian bluff, as they have called his, by ramping up militarily – with results that could be far worse for the region, the global economy and the world.