A residential building that was damaged by an air strike in Iran's capital of Tehran on Monday.Majid Asgaripou/Reuters
Last week, I decided to buy a new car. I drove out beyond the edge of town to the Ali Khamenei Memorial Auto Mall. On arrival, I destroyed my previous vehicle by setting it on fire, then informed the poker-faced salesman that I was in a desperate hurry to acquire a car – any car – because I had to get home in time for dinner and had no Plan B. Oh, and money was no object.
I’m kidding. I didn’t do that. But Art of the Deal Donnie did.
When U.S. President Donald Trump launched a war against Iran on Feb. 28, he thought he was in the driver’s seat. Because he embarked on this venture with boundless self-confidence but no strategy, no pain tolerance, no moral compass and no patience, Iran is now in the driver’s seat.
Despite the enormous damage that thousands of air strikes have inflicted on the Islamic Republic’s military, government and internal security services, it is Mr. Trump who is crying uncle. He needs whoever is now in charge in Tehran to agree to stop the war that he started, ASAP.
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Mr. Trump’s obvious desperation requires no simultaneous translation. That’s why the other side is in no hurry to come to the table, and has already laid out a long list of demands.
The White House went to war saying that its goals were regime change, stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, destroying its missile capabilities and degrading its proxies.
All that has faded into the background. The main U.S. war aim now is reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
For those joining us late, the Strait was open before Feb. 28. The only country that faced restrictions on its exports was Iran, through international sanctions.
Today, the other countries of the Persian Gulf are unable to export through the Strait, thanks to Iranian threats to sink tankers. Meanwhile, Iran continues to be able to move its oil – with the U.S. enabling and encouraging that by lifting sanctions.
Mr. Trump launched this war based on at least three faulty assumptions. First, that blowing up the enemy’s stuff is a strategy. Second, that the enemy could not fight back. And third, that victory would be swift and cheap.
U.S. politics will not allow American involvement in this war to last long, and Mr. Trump has always promised low gas prices as a God-given right. He has not made the case for war to voters, and he couldn’t if he tried. MAGA supporters are largely against foreign entanglements, as are Democrats and independents.
From Vietnam to Afghanistan, U.S. policy ended in failure in part because the other side was more patient, and willing to endure pain for longer. In those wars, American patience was measured in years. Today’s level of presidential impatience is measured in days.
Washington has a stopwatch. Tehran has the time.
And all of that is why this war is going to end badly, or worse.
This administration is staffed by dunces and yes men, and led by a president who is as uninterested in the national interest as he is immersed in his own psychological needs. It’s hard to see the way to a better outcome.
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Washington could improve its negotiating position by taking the obvious step of blocking Iranian oil exports. The U.S. Navy simply has to announce that, so long as Iran is blockading its neighbours, it will be similarly blockaded. No invasion of Kharg Island, or any other part of Iran, is needed.
That would give the U.S. some leverage, while providing the Gulf states with some confidence that the U.S. is not about to abandon them with Iran in charge of the Strait.
The countries of the region used to export around 20 million barrels a day of oil. That’s roughly 20 per cent of global production. Under a blockade, Iran’s daily exports of approximately two million barrels would fall to zero. Saudi Arabia, in contrast, can ship around seven million barrels by pipeline to Yanbu, on the Red Sea.
If both sides blocked the Strait, global oil supplies would likely fall by more than 10 per cent. That would trigger higher prices worldwide, though much of that may already be priced in. Iran would suffer far more, since its only significant export, and only significant source of foreign earnings, would disappear.
Why hasn’t the U.S. done this? Because Mr. Trump promised quick, painless and costless. Lowering the oil prices that he raised has become his one clear strategic objective.
That’s why I Can Negotiate Anything Donnie is helping Iran get its product to market, and fattening his enemy’s wallet.
Make America Great Again, eh?