Prime Minister Mark Carney delivers remarks during the Ottawa Board of Trade Mayor's Breakfast Series in Ottawa on Monday.Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press
As the world’s emerging economies increasingly turn away from the West, Canada risks becoming even more of an also-ran.
The signs are everywhere if we choose to look beyond our own borders – and not just immediately south of the 49th parallel.
China’s trade surplus surpassed US$1-trillion during the first 11 months of this year, setting a new record amid robust global demand for its goods. Its weak currency also boosted exports.
India and Russia, meanwhile, have set a new goal of achieving US$100-billion in bilateral trade by 2030 while also increasing their co-operation on nuclear energy, high-tech manufacturing, critical minerals and even seafaring and mining in the Arctic.
“I am confident that in the times ahead, our friendship will empower us to face global challenges and this confidence will further enrich our shared future,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin last Friday in New Delhi, according to a translation of his remarks.
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India and Russia, he added, will also continue their collaboration, including with China, at multilateral forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the BRICS.
“Reshaping power in emerging markets,” including in the area of artificial-intelligence governance, is chief among Mr. Modi’s goals for India’s presidency of the BRICS in 2026.
Mr. Putin, meanwhile, suggested the G7 is losing relevance. (Russia was expelled from the G8 in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea.) He has also played down the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil sales and Washington’s imposition of punitive tariffs on India.
“Those who attempt to hinder economic ties with third countries ultimately encounter difficulties and suffer losses,” Mr. Putin said in a recent interview with India Today Group TV.
“I am confident that once this perspective becomes firmly established, such tactics of applying external pressures will fade away.”
These geopolitical shifts raise questions about whether Canada, which has the 10th largest economy in the world, is still considered a middle power on the global stage.
Given the increasing clout of emerging market economies – China ranks second globally, India is in fifth place and Russia is ninth – Canada’s plan to double its non-U.S. exports by 2035 appears, well, fraught.
Sure, there are some signs of progress. Canada has a new trade agreement with Indonesia, which holds the promise of bolstering exports of wheat, potash, wood and soybeans once it comes into force in 2026.
Canada is also pursuing free-trade talks with India, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South American Mercosur economic bloc, which includes Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.
Indeed, Canada already has 15 trade agreements in place covering some 51 countries.
U.S. President Donald Trump said 'we'll work it out' when asked about the state of trade discussions with Canada on Sunday after he met with the leaders of Canada and Mexico on Friday.
Reuters
Trouble is, most small- and medium-sized enterprises, which comprise the vast majority of Canadian companies, still do not export their goods to overseas markets. That, in turn, prevents the proper utilization of trade agreements.
“Only the most productive firms can handle the costs and challenges of exporting and successfully compete abroad,” states a 2025 government report.
For all those reasons, Canada risks getting stuck talking to itself at the geopolitical party punch bowl while other middle powers partner up to dance on commerce and security.
As a maritime country, Canada’s lackadaisical attitude about the Far North is particularly dangerous given that both Russia and China have designs on the Arctic.
If any country should be teaming up with India on Arctic maritime transport and industrial investment to counterbalance China’s influence in the region, it should be Canada.
Canada cannot afford to have emerging global powers such as India backing Russia in the race for Arctic domination. Such a partnership only increases the financial rewards of Russian aggression in the Far North and threatens Canada’s national and economic security.
Similarly, Canada should aim to displace Russian exports of oil and critical minerals for Asian buyers. But our own fractious domestic politics risk detracting from that goal.
“India has begun purchasing oil from Canada with the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline and could be a destination for LNG exports,” states a 2025 report published by the Conference Board of Canada.
Titled Middle Power Thinking: How Canada Needs to Engage With the World, the report argues that it is also possible for Canada to “seek a purely economic relationship with China” given Beijing’s stated desire to buy more Canadian resources.
Prime Minister Mark Carney appears to understand that Ottawa needs to be pragmatic on matters of trade. But if our country is to remain relevant as a middle power in this multipolar world, Canadians need to broaden their horizons and stop getting in their own way.