A 2025 holiday shopping survey by Retail Council of Canada notes that 86 per cent of respondents 'plan to shop close to home' but 'price and perceived value still drive final purchase decisions.'Andres Valenzuela/The Globe and Mail
It didn’t take long for some Canadians to go from “elbows up” to rolling over.
There are more signs that the Buy Canadian trend is fading for many consumers, even though the spurious U.S. trade war continues with no end in sight. In fact, bilateral relations hit a new low in recent weeks when U.S. President Donald Trump halted trade talks with Ottawa in a fit of pique over the Ontario government’s anti-tariff advertisement.
None of this is surprising – including the deflating dogma about ditching U.S. goods.
As I argued in a column this past April, the Buy Canadian movement always had the markings of a passing trend. It is predicated on sentimental stirrings, so it will not result in a permanent shift in purchasing habits for money-conscious consumers.
The fad predictably lost steam as the economy soured and job losses piled up, causing consumer sentiment to sputter across the country. Even with October’s surprise jobs gain, the national unemployment rate remains elevated at 6.9 per cent.
Consumers are understandably pessimistic about the health of their household finances. That’s why the coming holiday shopping season will test whether Canadians still have the resolve to prioritize patriotism over price.
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There are early indications that many consumers are already giving up the fight.
Loblaw Cos. Ltd. disclosed last week that some shoppers have switched back to buying U.S. products since the removal of Canadian countertariffs on those goods.
“Of course, we are seeing some customers who are going back to those products that they love, now that they are much cheaper than they were, and that will have some impact on Canadian sales,” chief executive officer Per Bank said on the retailer’s third-quarter earnings call.
Although sales of Canadian-made products remain elevated, the initial bump is nonetheless flattening for many retailers.
“Even with the recent development on the removal of some Canadian retaliatory tariffs, we continue to see Canadian product sales continue to outpace U.S. product sales,” Michael Medline, the outgoing CEO of Empire Co. Ltd., said on a conference call in September.
“However, over the last few months, the Buy Canadian sentiment has moderated slightly from previous highs seen earlier in the year.”
Metro Inc. has also seen signs of a slowdown: “It’s decelerating somewhat,” CEO Eric La Flèche told analysts back in August. (Metro is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Wednesday.)
The Bank of Canada, too, has referenced this shift, noting that price differences between Canadian and foreign products “remain a key deciding factor” for many people.
“Three-quarters of survey respondents indicated they are not willing to pay more than an additional 10% for a made-in-Canada product,” stated the central bank’s Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, released on Oct. 20.
“For example, one respondent said, ‘I’m going more out of my way now to buy Canadian. I would say I am willing to pay more these days for products made in Canada. Not a substantial amount more. I’d say 5%-10% more at the most.’”
Frankly, that is a bigger premium than many people can reasonably afford to pay.
Indeed, the 2025 holiday shopping survey published by the Retail Council of Canada (in conjunction with Leger Marketing) predicts the average planned gift spending will remain flat at $975.
It notes that 86 per cent of respondents “plan to shop close to home” and 84 per cent “will seek out” Canadian-made goods. “But price and perceived value still drive final purchase decisions,” it added.
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That same survey also found that Black Friday, which is indisputably an American retail tradition, is now the “most important shopping day” for the vast majority of Canadians, easily displacing Boxing Day in terms of its retail significance.
The fact that Canadians have embraced this marketing gimmick, which is clearly tied to the Friday after U.S. Thanksgiving, given Mr. Trump’s repeated annexation threats, no less, is a symptom of our acculturation, if not acquiescence.
Don’t get me wrong. No one should be shamed for voting with their wallets, especially in these tough economic times.
There is a reason that big-name American retailers, such as Walmart, Amazon and Costco, hold such a hallowed place in the Canadian consumer psyche: They offer a better selection of products at cheaper prices.
So much for the staying power of the Buy Canadian movement. As it turns out, it didn’t even take a full year for our consumer boycott of American goods to begin going bust.