Ragging the puck has a long and distinguished history, and not just in the national sport. Also in Canadian politics, constitutional bargaining and international negotiations.
Given time, some problems shrink. Given time, some threats go away, or at least diminish. On the ice, a short-handed team tries to run the clock until the penalty expires. In a negotiation, the side that feels put upon may run the calendar, with an eye on a future that could bring changed circumstances and a better bargaining position.
Why agree to a bad deal now when events may present a better opportunity later? Or at least a less-bad one?
Donald Trump, the U.S. President, embarked on his second term determined to move fast and break things. On the trade front, he quickly erected tariff walls, and used threats of higher walls to get trading partners to agree to take the hit. Most also agreed to thank Mr. Trump for the blows, by offering vague pledges to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the U.S.
A notable exception is Canada.
The White House has imposed a series of general and sectoral tariffs on Canadian imports in the U.S., but Canada – unlike the European Union, Japan, Britain and others – has not accepted these levies. There has been no “deal” with the U.S. – which means that Ottawa has not signed some non-legally binding, non-contractual, non-treaty scrap of paper that says the U.S. tariffs are kosher.
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None of us can be certain that was the right move. But I tend to believe it was, and is. Time could get us a better deal. Or more precisely, a less-bad deal.
It’s pretty clear where an unbridled Mr. Trump wants to go. But time may yet bridle him. The one thing no man has enough of is time.
Unless the U.S. ceases to be a constitutional democracy – a real possibility – Mr. Trump may be at his peak of unfettered power. Here’s a shortlist of forces and events that may yet fetter him.
The Epstein files will, at the very least, suck up a lot of White House time and energy. The issue could also splinter the MAGA movement.
A U.S. Supreme Court that has so far mostly declined to challenge Mr. Trump is likely to rule, in a case currently before it, that the President cannot arrogate the Congressional power to tax, and cannot impose emergency tariffs for any reason he dreams up.
The President’s authority to levy sectoral tariffs – steel, aluminum, lumber, and so on – is not at issue in this case. But a loss at the Supreme Court would require repayment of the funds collected, while limiting the President’s freedom of action.
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Other distractions? The peace that Mr. Trump allegedly brought to Gaza hasn’t advanced beyond the first step. The war in Ukraine that he said he’d end on Day 1 is bloodier than ever. And Mr. Trump, who pledged to avoid foreign entanglements, is edging toward war with Venezuela.
As for the U.S. economy, while it is still in relatively good shape, it will feel the impact of tariffs, especially those on Canada. There will be costs passed on to consumers, who won’t like them. Polls show the tariff war is already unpopular.
And midterm Congressional elections are less than a year away. Even with Republican states gerrymandering to ensure GOP wins (and Democratic states gerrymander right back), there is a real possibility that Mr. Trump will lose control of the House of Representatives.
In other words, time may be on Canada’s side. But time also brings risks.
The longer Mr. Trump’s trade measures remain in place – such as the tariffs on steel, aluminum, and vehicles – the more they become entrenched. They turn into the status quo, and not something that Democrats, should they regain power, will want to entirely dismantle. The more the continental single market is broken into two separate markets, and the longer that endures, the harder it will be to change.
Mr. Carney’s signature line – that a long history of ever-closer economic ties with the U.S. is “over” – is correct. The Americans will remain our largest trading partner, but the Trump administration has replaced the dynamic of integration with one of deintegration.
The battle is about whether Canada-U.S. trade will be rolled back maximally, or minimally. And whether, relative to 2024, future trade arrangements will be bad, very bad, or somewhat less bad.
Canada can try to use the clock and the calendar to get the least-bad outcome. Time will tell.