A farm in Rippey, Iowa in October, 2019. Global shipments stranded due to conflict in the Middle East have driven up prices of fuel and fertilizer ahead of the spring planting season in the U.S.Joe Raedle/Getty Images
When U.S. President Donald Trump announced a massive agricultural aid package in December, he vowed to usher in a new era of prosperity for American farmers.
The financial assistance, which consisted of US$12-billion in one-time bridge payments, was billed as a response to the “temporary trade market disruptions and increased production costs” facing the sector. Mr. Trump blamed those problems on the previous Biden administration, deflecting from the damaging effects of his own economic policies.
“We’re going to make farmers so strong, and I’m not even talking about financially. They just want to be able to produce what they can produce,” Mr. Trump said when he announced the package on Dec. 8. “We’re going to make them so strong, it will be, indeed, a golden age for farmers.”
He later added: “I love the farmers.”
It’s proving to be a tainted love.
Iran conflict drives up fertilizer costs during busy planting season
American farmers are now collateral damage in Mr. Trump’s ill-conceived war against Iran. Despite his promises to secure and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessels, Tehran has maintained its stranglehold on the narrow waterway. Stranded global shipments have driven up prices of fuel and fertilizer ahead of the spring planting season in the U.S.
“Like oil, global fertilizer markets are highly vulnerable to disruptions in maritime transit routes, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor for key fertilizer materials and finished fertilizer,” wrote Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, in a letter to Mr. Trump dated March 9.
Among his various requests, he urged Mr. Trump to “temporarily suspend countervailing duties on imported fertilizer products to moderate price increases” for farmers and consumers.
“Without strategically prioritizing the delivery of critical farm inputs such as urea, ammonia, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfur-based products, the U.S. risks a shortfall in crops,” stated Mr. Duvall. “Not only is this a threat to our food security – and by extension our national security – such a production shock could contribute to inflationary pressures across the U.S. economy."
Geopolitical risk is the latest challenge facing the agricultural sector, which has also been marked by rising bankruptcies and debt. A forecast from the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. suggests that fewer than half of U.S. farmers are expected to record a profit this year.
Farmers are understandably frustrated because they were also walloped by Mr. Trump’s reckless immigration and trade policies since his return to power in early 2025. ICE raids and deportations, for instance, have further strained the already tight supply of migrant labourers across the U.S., prompting dire warnings of domestic food shortages.
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That has forced the Trump administration to reluctantly pivot away from its previous promises of an all-American workforce on farms. In fact, the U.S. is now making it less costly for farmers to hire foreign agricultural workers on temporary visas.
This turnabout has reportedly rankled some Republicans. They will have to suck it up. There is no getting around the fact that U.S. agriculture is dependent on cheaper migrant labour.
Mr. Trump’s global trade war is also creating headaches.
Many farmers are displeased by a new 10-per-cent global tariff that was created (using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974) after the Supreme Court struck down previous tariffs instituted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
Even before these recent developments, Mr. Trump’s erratic trade policies were drying up foreign demand for U.S. crops.
Last year, American soybean farmers were particularly hard hit when China opted to buy cheaper crops from Brazil because of trade tensions with the U.S.
Although China and the U.S. reached a truce of sorts last October, there is lingering concern that Beijing will not fulfill its commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually from 2026 to 2028.
Those worries are only intensifying for U.S. farmers – and, yes, it’s related to the Iran war.
On Monday, Mr. Trump said he wants to postpone a trip to China, originally planned for the end of March, to meet with President Xi Jinping. “We’ve got a war going on. I think it’s important that I be here,” Mr. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.
That doesn’t bode well for U.S. soybean exporters.
Rural Americans are conventionally conservative, but their growing list of grievances against this inept administration will haunt the Republicans during the midterm elections.
Mr. Trump promised farmers a golden age, but he’s given them a whole lot of grief.