In gambling, they call it a tell. Poker players study the body language of opponents, looking for twitches and tics that signal what they’re really thinking.
U.S. President Donald Trump has a tell. It’s kind of obvious. He has a habit of telling the whole world exactly what he wants. He just comes right out and says it. Repeatedly.
The trade war against Canada is allegedly about a fictional river of fentanyl whose source is our northern narco-state. Because of some wrinkles in American law, this is, for the moment, the Trump administration’s official story. And if you believe that, you should go all in with a pair of twos.
Now, here’s the tell.
Mr. Trump has said, over and over, that “tariff” is his favourite word. He has said, time and again, that tariffs will force industries – especially the auto industry – to relocate to the United States. He says tariffs will make Americans rich, raise trillions of dollars, and cure what ails you faster than chugging a keg of ivermectin. (Okay, he never said that last one.)
On Tuesday in front of Congress, Mr. Trump reiterated these professions of faith. On Wednesday, all the President’s minions delivered the same message.
Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said tariffs are about targeting Canadian auto plants. “Why are our Michigan jobs in Canada?” he asked on Fox News.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the tariff pause for automakers was to give them time to “shift production here to America, where they will pay no tariffs.”
Vice-President JD Vance said “the way to avoid application of the tariffs is to have your factory or have your facility in the United States of America.”
Mr. Trump introduced and then abruptly paused most tariffs on Canada this week, but that’s not what he wants to do. He would prefer tariffs to be immediate, extensive and permanent because he believes that will force business to move to the U.S., and Canada to join the U.S.
Canada has no independent power to stop U.S. tariffs. But we have quite a lot of power to persuade Americans to stop the tariffs, through appeals to emotion, calls to reason and the application of economic pain.
For decades, Canada and the U.S. have been the closest of friends and allies, joined in the world’s greatest trading partnership. Across the longest undefended border, our economies are interconnected and interdependent. It is a far deeper relationship than the U.S. has with China or Europe.
In the upside-down world of Donald Trump, that makes us the perfect target.
If you’ve decided to become an entrepreneur in the exciting business of home invasions, why not start by shaking down your best friend? He lives right next door, he completely trusts you and you even have his spare key.
Mr. Trump thinks our ties of trust give him more leverage over us than he has with Russia or China. He’s right. But we also have some big weapons on our side.
Our first card is that we can make things unpleasant for the U.S. economy with tariffs of our own. As the smaller party, Canada will suffer more pain. But in a fight for our existence, we’re willing to accept more pain. Meanwhile, the average American has no idea what is to be gained from going to war with their favourite foreign country.
The tariff on autos was paused because the industry screamed at the bomb being dropped on its continental business model. Thursday’s broader pause is similar. Tariffs and countertariffs have made a lot of U.S. businesses scream, along with governors, members of Congress, the stock market and voters.
Canada’s second invaluable card is that we speak English, in what sounds to all the world like American accents. Our leaders can go on CNN and sound like Democrats; they can go on Fox News and sound like Republicans. No other country has this superpower. We’re not the poor Ukrainian President, standing his ground in the Oval Office in his third language.
Canada should be doing a lot more talking to Americans. There should be a big ad campaign in the U.S. to remind our neighbours of what good friends we are, and of how many millions of Americans get up every morning to make products bought by America’s biggest customer. They haven’t the faintest idea.
Even if the Trump administration overcomes domestic resistance, imposes extensive tariffs on Canada and keeps them in place indefinitely, we will survive. We’ll have a recession, but we will recover. In a few years, we’ll be back at full employment.
Would a U.S. tariff wall leave Canada less well off? Yes. A permanent trade barrier would likely knock a few percentage points off Canada’s baseline gross domestic product, permanently. Even a steady dose of largely unrealized tariff threats – the diet of the past few months – would be an economic drag.
But from before Confederation until the 1940s, Canada lived with tariff walls. Some barriers remained until the 1988 Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. That earlier Canada nevertheless survived and thrived. We can do it again.
The Trump tell tells us that, for the foreseeable future, we have no other choice.