U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday. Trump’s net approval is currently minus 14.9 per cent.Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
If the United States can stay a democracy – no, not a given – then President Donald Trump may have already passed the peak of his powers. He could be, to quote a Bruce Springsteen song, a rider on a downbound train.
The signs? Let us count them.
Start with popularity. Mr. Trump began his second term with a net approval rating of plus 11.7 per cent, according to an aggregation of polls by Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin. He’s been downhill skiing ever since. Mr. Trump’s net approval is now minus 14.9 per cent.
On the major electoral issues, the President has similarly moved from positive territory with voters to far under water.
Do Americans approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy? Those who say no outnumber those who say yes by 16 percentage points. Trade? He’s at minus 17 per cent. Inflation? Minus 25 per cent. Immigration? Minus 12 per cent.
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With the midterm elections just nine months away, the numbers are a source of worry for Republicans in Congress. They gave the President a blank cheque in his first year – and he’s using it in ways that threaten their seats.
To save their political lives, some are starting to push back.
On Wednesday, six Republicans in the House of Representatives worked up the courage to vote in favour of a bill ending one group of tariffs on Canada. Democrats also supported the measure, so it passed.
Six dissenting GOP members in a caucus of 218 may not seem like much, but it’s a crack in what had been absolute fealty to, and absolute fear of, the boss. The President can veto the bill, but that he may have to is something new.
So long as the U.S. remains a democracy, GOP members in seats at risk in November will have an incentive to speak and vote against presidential policies that have put them in voters’ crosshairs.
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The U.S. Supreme Court, another branch of government that’s been deferential in Mr. Trump’s first year, will soon rule on whether he has the power to impose one type of tariff – the “Liberation Day” levies on most countries – or whether that is Congress’ job. Given that the U.S. Constitution is fairly clear on this, the court’s ruling is likely to leave Mr. Trump’s powers at least somewhat circumscribed, rather than expanded.
Speaking of courts, a grand jury this week declined to issue criminal indictments against two Democratic senators. The cooked-up accusation from Mr. Trump’s pet Justice Department is that they broke the law by reminding members of the military and intelligence services of their duty to refuse illegal orders. A grand jury didn’t buy it. Nor would any non-kangaroo court.
The final sign that the President’s power may be slipping is his social media feed. Flurries of over-the-top threats that come out of nowhere and are often quickly dropped are not evidence of an omnipotent genius playing five-dimensional chess. They suggest the opposite: fear, insecurity and frustration that his whim is not law.
For all that, don’t write the end of the Trump era just yet.
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As this President made clear in 2020, he only accepts the legitimacy of elections that go in his favour. Will the 2026 midterms result in fair votes, fair counts and the prompt seating of all those elected? Maybe. Maybe not.
In any event, the recent gerrymandering of electoral maps, carried out by red states in furtherance of Mr. Trump’s demands, and blue states in response, leaves far fewer swing seats up for grabs.
Assuming fair elections, Democrats are almost certainly going to take control of the House, and maybe even the Senate. However, gerrymandering means the number of seats changing hands could be historically small.
Also standing in the way of the Democratic party is, well, the Democratic party. Mr. Trump and the GOP have below-sea-level approval ratings, but the other team’s numbers are, remarkably, even more negative.
On balance, however, Mr. Trump is facing headwinds in the courts, Congress and public opinion. His behaviour is strengthening them.
What course does that suggest for Canada? Rag the puck. Run the clock.
Mr. Trump’s power to do us harm is great, and it can grow. But there are many reasons to expect that his power is more likely to diminish over time, along with the amount of political capital he has to waste on attacking us.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has no reason to rush to make concessions on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or anything else.
Be polite, respectful, firm – and patient. Play the odds. Play for time.