U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in Turnberry, Scotland on July 27, 2025.Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
The United States found a special way to celebrate the first anniversary of its historic trade pact with the European Union. It gave the gift of fresh threats.
July 27 marked one year since U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen struck a much-hyped trade deal in Turnberry, Scotland, after he played a round of golf at his luxury resort there.
Dubbed the Turnberry Agreement, it was really a lopsided truce to Mr. Trump’s trade war, despite being characterized as a “Co-operation Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade.”
The deal introduced a 15-per-cent cap on U.S. tariffs for most EU goods. In turn, the EU vowed to eliminate its tariffs on U.S. industrial products and to improve market access for various American agricultural goods and seafood products, among other concessions.
The European Commission, the executive arm of the 27-member EU, tried to blunt criticism by asserting that the deal would restore “stability and predictability” in its trade and investment relationship with the U.S., its largest trading partner.
“It is a strong deal, but not a perfect one,” Ms. von der Leyen wrote in an op-ed published by the Times of Malta last August.
That oft-quoted line hasn’t aged well.
LeBlanc returns to Washington in effort to advance trade talks
Just days before the Turnberry Agreement’s first birthday, the U.S. hurled trumped-up accusations at the EU and threatened trade tumult – all while painting itself as the aggrieved party.
This latest spike in transatlantic trade tensions is instructive for Canada as it seeks to advance its own trade talks with the U.S. Washington says that it wants to reach interim agreements with Canada and Mexico by the end of this year.
The EU, however, discovered the hard way that there’s no such thing as a “stable and predictable” trading relationship with the U.S., even when a supposedly historic trade deal is in place.
Lesson No. 1: Fidelity is fiction.
Demonstrating that no deal brokered by the Trump administration is worth the paper it is printed on, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer issued a bombastic statement on July 23 that warned transatlantic trade was at risk.
His reason?
The European Commission had the temerity to fine Google €890-million, or the equivalent of roughly US$1-billion, for violating its Digital Markets Act.
Mr. Greer accused the Europeans of taking “an increasingly aggressive approach targeting U.S. technology firms” through this and other actions that “represent a de facto forced technology transfer and intellectual property theft.”
If that wasn’t bad enough, his boss vowed retaliation through more tariffs.
“The United States of America is not a ‘PIGGYBANK’ for Europe, nor will we allow it to be!” Mr. Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.
“The European Union will pay a very big price for this illegal and highly unethical conduct, which I have consistently warned them about. The penalties will be entirely reversed and, we anticipate, a substantial TARIFF to be placed on them at the earliest possible moment. Stay tuned!”
U.S. Ambassador to Belgium Bill White, center, listens to a pre-recorded address by Trump during the America 250 event in Brussels on June 28.Virginia Mayo/The Associated Press
Lesson No. 2: Prostration is pointless.
The EU tried to placate Mr. Trump last week by publicly stating that it is a-okay with a new 10-per-cent tariff imposed by Washington over the EU’s alleged failure to enforce a ban on importing goods made with forced labour.
“The EU notes positively the fact that this outcome is in line with the U.S. tariff commitments agreed under the EU-U.S. Joint Statement,” said Olof Gill, deputy chief spokesperson for the European Commission, according to published reports.
The U.S., of course, never acts in bad faith.
Mr. Trump’s previous threats to cut off trade with Spain, an EU member, and impose a 10-per-cent tariff on European countries that opposed a U.S. takeover of Greenland were obviously in keeping with the Turnberry Agreement, too.
Lesson No. 3: Safeguards fall short.
Transatlantic trade turmoil is entirely possible despite the EU’s efforts to pre-empt further disruptions by the U.S.
That’s right, the EU introduced safeguards and suspension mechanisms that enable it to reimpose tariffs on U.S. products under certain adverse scenarios.
Those circumstances include Washington violating the 15-per-cent tariff ceiling or if it “otherwise disrupts the trade and investment relationship” between the EU and the U.S.
But those safeguards may not prevent the U.S. from breaching the Turnberry Agreement. Integrity is in short supply in Washington these days.
If Mr. Trump has no compunction about antagonizing the EU after sealing a milestone pact, then any interim deal he reaches with Canada will only guarantee more trade chaos ahead.