Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leaves a news conference after announcing his resignation as Liberal leader outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Jan. 6.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
To paraphrase Ronald Reagan, are you better off today than you were nine years ago, when Justin Trudeau became prime minister?
For middle-class Canadians, the answer is a resounding no.
The constituency that Mr. Trudeau told us served as his government’s North Star has been gutted by inflation, soaring housing prices and a bleak feeling its best days are in the past. There’s a reason Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s message that the country is broken resonates with a significant chunk of the population.
How would business leaders compare the outlook for 2025 with the challenges they faced when the Liberals took power in 2015? The vibe is bleak. CEOs say when it comes to the economy, Canada has been a ship without a rudder for nine years.
For the business crowd – particularly folks at the small-to-medium-sized companies that are the economy’s growth engine – Mr. Trudeau’s name now comes after a swear word. Higher taxes, heavy regulation and a general sense this government just doesn’t care have destroyed the Liberal brand in corporate circles.
The brand is taking another hit over the timing of Mr. Trudeau’s resignation. Leaders define their legacies by stepping up in times of crisis. There’s a trade war coming with U.S. president-elect Donald Trump and our leader is stepping down.
Previous prime ministers – Liberal and Conservative – have used their political prowess to anchor successful second careers as corporate directors and law firm rainmakers. It is hard to imagine a major corporation offering Mr. Trudeau a seat in its boardroom.
The coming Liberal leadership race and the federal election that will follow offer a chance to replace the prime minister, and potentially reset the job description. To swipe a phrase from another American, political strategist James Carville, Mr. Trudeau’s successor needs to keep in mind that for the vast majority of Canadians, it’s the economy, stupid.
The next prime minister’s legacy will be defined in large part by how they deal with Mr. Trump and how they actually improve the prospects of the middle class, as opposed to simply talking about kitchen-table issues. On Monday, Ontario Chamber of Commerce CEO Daniel Tisch said: “Canadian prosperity depends on a sustainable growth agenda that unleashes business investment, entrepreneurship, innovation, productivity and competitiveness.”
Enough with the political gimmicks – the GST holidays, the elimination of carbon taxes on heating oil in Atlantic Canada swing ridings, the extra levies on bank profits. The next prime minister needs to strive for real economic wins, such as eliminating interprovincial trade barriers. For all Mr. Trump’s bluster, most economic trends are Canada’s friends. Shorter supply chains and decarbonization have the potential to create jobs and wealth in this country.
There are a handful of candidates for captain of a sinking Liberal ship with business experience, including former ABB Group lawyer François-Philippe Champagne and former central banker Mark Carney. Their campaigns, and those of rivals, would be well served by highlighting plans to unleash investment across the country. As Queen’s University professor Eugene Lang pointed out in a Globe and Mail opinion article, to regain relevance, the party needs to resurrect the tradition of blue Liberals and embrace politicians with roots in the private sector.
Mr. Poilievre would be equally well served by borrowing a page from the private equity crowd and setting out priorities for the Conservative’s first hundred days in office, along with longer-term goals for kickstarting the economy while balancing the books. The Opposition Leader no longer needs to beat up on Mr. Trudeau. Let’s hear what Mr. Poilievre will do differently on trade, tax and the business issues that will determine his legacy.
Over the past nine years, there’s been a growing gap between the Prime Minister’s Office and the business community. Mr. Trudeau’s coming departure is an opportunity to get the two sides talking again. So nine years from now, we’re all better off.