U.S. President Donald Trump says he'd back European security guarantees for Ukraine, though he stopped short of committing U.S. troops to the effort during talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House.
The Associated Press
When it comes to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Donald Trump is what real estate investors call a motivated seller. Highly motivated. The U.S. President is so eager to make a deal that he keeps raising the price he’s willing to have Ukraine pay.
That’s why Europe’s leaders dropped everything and rushed to Washington on Monday. They were there to try to talk Mr. Trump off a ledge.
Prior to his meeting last week with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mr. Trump had sounded like he was finally aligned with his NATO allies: He wanted Russia to agree to an immediate ceasefire and said there would be consequences if it didn’t.
But after their Alaska confab, Mr. Trump immediately dropped talk of a ceasefire, or punishing Russia if it continued attacking Ukraine. He also appeared to have accepted many of Mr. Putin’s long-standing demands, including that Ukraine give up territory that Russia hasn’t been able to conquer.
And Mr. Trump is characterizing his imagined role in future peace talks as a neutral mediator, rather than Ukraine’s ally. If anything, the U.S. President keeps acting like Russia’s advocate. He’s made many public demands of Mr. Zelensky, but none of Mr. Putin.
On Sunday night, Mr. Trump banged this out on social media: “President Zelensky of Ukraine can end the war with Russia immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight.” Ah, if Mr. Zelensky would only stop his war against Russia – why did he start it, anyhow?
Hence the Ukrainian President’s last-minute trip to Washington, accompanied by a bodyguard of European leaders.
To give Mr. Trump some credit, he gets a few important things right about the war in Ukraine. He also appears to have many other things entirely upside down.
Mr. Trump gets that it would be better for everyone if the war ended. He also gets that continuing the war until Russia is expelled from every inch of Ukraine is not realistic, as the front line has for some time been moving, albeit slowly, in the wrong direction. He gets that land will have to be conceded.
And it’s not wrong for the U.S. President to be talking directly with the Russian President. You can’t make peace without talking with the adversary.
But Mr. Trump has been consistently unable and unwilling to agree that Mr. Putin is an adversary, or even an obstacle. Sitting next to Mr. Zelensky at their joint news conference on Monday, Mr. Trump repeatedly called Mr. Putin’s invasion, “Biden’s war.”
When Mr. Zelensky praised American weapons, Mr. Trump was quick to interject that these were no longer gifts, as under former president Joe Biden, because “they pay us for the equipment.” In response to a question asking how much the U.S. was willing to spend supporting Ukraine, the President said: “We’re not giving anything” to Ukraine, “we’re selling weapons.” Then he went on to condemn Mr. Biden for giving aid.
If the Europeans want to buy U.S. military equipment and donate it to Ukraine, the Trump White House is okay with that, but it no longer considers the defence of Ukraine to be a matter on which it is willing to spend one American nickel.
Opinion: On Ukraine, Donald Trump speaks loudly and carries a small stick
As such, it’s hard to believe that even if the U.S. badgers Ukraine into making enough concessions to satisfy Mr. Putin, Washington will offer Ukraine what it needs: security guarantees against another Russian invasion. Would such promises from Washington even be worth the paper?
Mr. Trump is in a very strong position against Russia, which is a weak shadow of the old Soviet Union. Yet Mr. Trump has acted as if the best strategy is not to press Mr. Putin into concessions, but to concede until he cries uncle. The approach has so far yielded no results. On Monday, the Western allies discussed how to craft security guarantees for Ukraine that would be NATO-like without actual admission to NATO; the Kremlin quickly issued a statement rejecting Western troops in Ukraine as guarantors of any future settlement.
The last thing Mr. Trump gets very wrong in the relative power and heft of Russia and Europe.
Britain, France, Germany and Italy have a combined population of around 280 million. That is double Russia’s population. Add in the rest of the European Union and the EU plus Britain has 520 million people, or nearly four times as many as Russia.
The IMF estimates that, at current exchange rates, the Russian economy is slightly smaller than Canada’s. The EU economy is 10 times larger; with Britain, the European economy is 12 times bigger. Even at purchasing power parity, the EU-plus-Britain has an economy five times the size of Russia’s.
Europe also has a larger and more advanced industrial base. For example, Europe produced nearly 14 million motor vehicles last year. Russia produced 983,000.
Washington should always choose the Atlantic alliance over Moscow. Mr. Trump’s tendency to sometimes lean in the other direction is entirely irrational.
But the wide disparity in economic and demographic power between Europe and Russia is also a reminder that, had they not allowed their militaries and defence industries to go to seed, the Europeans could stand up to Russia, and backstop Ukraine, even without American support.