Employees cut beef at a meat processing factory in Binzhou, in eastern China's Shandong province, in April, 2025.STR/AFP/Getty Images
China reopening its market to Canadian beef is unlikely to increase prices at home or reduce already tight supplies, but it might boost the long-term resiliency of a volatile business with razor-thin margins, industry analysts say.
On Jan. 20, China dropped its long-standing ban on Canadian beef. Shipments there will now be subject to a quota that is shared with other countries, and any imports over that limit will be tariffed at 55 per cent.
In an interview with The Globe and Mail this past week, Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Foods Heath MacDonald said eliminating the beef tariffs is another example of “real genuine interest in communication and collaboration” from Beijing.
China’s announcement on beef came a few days after Prime Minister Mark Carney concluded his trade mission to the Asian giant, made in hopes of resetting a fraught relationship. The mission resulted in the elimination or reduction of multiple trade barriers affecting agricultural products, including a substantial reduction in tariffs targeting canola.
However, the deal is not about volumes or sales values, market analysts and industry spokespeople say. Comparatively little beef found its way to Chinese markets before Beijing’s sanctions took effect in 2021. The total value of the market then was $193.5-million, roughly 4.4 per cent of total exports. For this reason, a deal with China is unlikely to have an impact on prices at home – which have hit record highs over the past year.
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But the deal is still significant, analysts say. Adding China to the beef industry’s trade portfolio will improve the long-term resiliency of a volatile sector. Trade diversification is important for an industry overly dependent on an increasingly unpredictable southern neighbour – more than 70 per cent of Canada’s beef is shipped to the United States.
Shipping beef products to Asian markets also represents an opportunity to benefit from consumers with tastes very different from the typical North American.
“It’s more of what, I’d almost say, a sugar high for the trade negotiation having happened,” said Kevin Boon, general manager at the BC Cattlemen’s Association. “… It’s an added benefit.”
While shipping beef to China is “not moving the needle” in the short term, it is nonetheless one of many “good prospects” for Canadian beef moving forward, said Darin Friedrichs, director of market research at Sitonia Consulting, a company that provides analysis and insights on China’s agriculture market.
Pork is the No. 1 protein in China; however, as diets westernize and more of the population moves into the middle class, beef demand is climbing. It is viewed as a healthier alternative to fatty pork, Mr. Friedrichs said.
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Chinese beef consumption is forecast to climb by 8.7 per cent between 2026 and 2034, said Farm Credit Canada economist Leigh Anderson.
Demand in Canada, on the other hand, is trending downward over time, he said.
China’s domestic production has climbed as well, but not fast enough, Mr. Friedrichs said. The sector is not competitive. As a result, beef is the protein for which China most depends on imports. In 2024, it imported 2.9 million tonnes, largely from Brazil and Argentina.
Canada could take a slice out of this beef pie – especially for cuts it can’t sell domestically.
Internationally, rather than loading entire cow carcasses onto ships and selling them in one piece to overseas markets, beef sales are made by the cut, Mr. Boon said.
Some cuts are easier to sell than others, especially to picky Canadian consumers. Offal – which includes the cow’s intestines – is practically “impossible” to sell to North Americans, Mr. Boon said.
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Chinese consumers have different tastes, he said. In markets across Asia, offal is often considered a delicacy.
Should Canadian beef processors be able to sell more unwanted parts of the carcass to China, it could result in wider margins for slaughterhouses, which currently run on razor-thin profits.
“We’re down to pennies on profits sometimes,” Mr. Boon said. “… So carcass optimization is really where this benefits us.”
Canadian beef also has potential to play to its advantage and sell premium cuts to wealthy Chinese buyers.
Globally, Canada’s beef industry is known for its quality, said Mike von Massow, an agricultural economist at the University of Guelph. This is largely thanks to the way Canadian producers rear cattle. While ranchers in Argentina and Brazil grass-feed their cattle right up to slaughter, Canadian cattle typically spend their final four to five months in feedlots where they are fattened on a combination of grains.
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As Canadian beef prices climb – 23 per cent above the five-year average, as of July, 2025 – consumers are also switching from premium cuts to cheaper cuts. These premium cuts could be sold to wealthy Chinese consumers, while Canada continues to meet demand for more affordable beef by importing from Australia and Brazil, Prof. von Massow said.
The net effect could be to level out the extremes for Canadian ranchers, he continued. Beef is a volatile and cyclical industry and ranchers are prone to extreme price swings. For example, the commodity price for beef this year climbed 15 per cent compared with the previous 10-year high.
The cyclical nature of the business makes growth difficult. The Canadian beef herd is at near record lows, and the sector is facing a looming labour shortage as ranchers retire and few younger people replace them.
The deal with China, therefore, could help develop much-needed resiliency.
“While this isn’t going to be a big deal right now, we are going to see our cow herd expand,” Prof. von Massow said. “Developing new markets will perhaps help us flatten out these big extremes that we’ve had in the past.”