U.S. President Donald Trump broke with longstanding White House protocol on Friday – and in doing so, threw currency markets for a loop.
More than an hour before the release of the U.S. jobs report, Mr. Trump tweeted that he was “looking forward” to seeing the numbers – what many considered a signal that a strong report was on the way. Released at 8:30 a.m. ET, the report showed the U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in May, beating forecasters’ expectations.
As part of an established practice, Mr. Trump was briefed on the jobs report on Thursday evening. However, under a federal rule, White House officials aren’t allowed to “publicly comment” on economic data until at least an hour after its release.
U.S. jobs data can move markets as it gives traders a sense of how the economy is performing. Keeping that data under strict embargo helps markets operate fairly.
Mr. Trump’s tweet clearly had an impact. Here’s a look at the U.S. dollar index.
U.S. dollar index
Percentage change since 6 a.m. on jobs day
Today
Avg. for previous six release days
0.50%
0.40
0.30
0.20
Trump
sends tweet
0.10
0.00
-0.10
6 a.m.
7 a.m.
8 a.m.
9 a.m.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
U.S. dollar index
Percentage change since 6 a.m. on day of jobs report
Today
Avg. for previous six release days
0.50%
0.40
0.30
0.20
Trump
sends tweet
0.10
0.00
-0.10
6 a.m.
7 a.m.
8 a.m.
9 a.m.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
U.S. dollar index
Percentage change since 6 a.m. on day of jobs report
Today
Avg. for previous six release days
0.50%
0.40
0.30
0.20
Trump
sends tweet
0.10
0.00
-0.10
6 a.m.
7 a.m.
8 a.m.
9 a.m.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
The chart is indexed to 6 a.m. and shows today's move, along with an average for the days of the previous six jobs reports.
Generally on jobs day, currency markets are subdued until 8:30 a.m., after which they can erupt as traders (or algorithms) ingest the details.
Today was very different. The U.S. dollar index started moving materially higher after Mr. Trump tweeted at 7:21 a.m. It also jumped immediately after the report was released, but the move evaporated within minutes. The entirety of the U.S. dollar’s gain between 6 a.m. and 9:30 a.m. came before the report’s official release.
Here’s another way of looking at the dollar moves, this time without averaging the previous release days. Clearly, the greenback moved in an atypical way prior to 8:30 a.m.
U.S. dollar index
Percentage change since 6 a.m. on jobs day
Today
Previous six release days
0.50%
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
6 a.m.
7 a.m.
8 a.m.
9 a.m.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
U.S. dollar index
Percentage change since 6 a.m. on day of jobs report
Today
Previous six release days
0.50%
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
6 a.m.
7 a.m.
8 a.m.
9 a.m.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
U.S. dollar index
Percentage change since 6 a.m. on day of jobs report
Today
Previous six release days
0.50%
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
6 a.m.
7 a.m.
8 a.m.
9 a.m.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
Larry Kudlow, the chairman of the president’s National Economic Council, told CNBC he shared the report with Mr. Trump on Thursday, but didn’t see a problem with Friday’s tweet.
“I don’t think he gave anything away, incidentally. I think this is all according to routine, law and custom,” he said.