Red potash in a warehouse at Nutrien’s Cory Potash mine near Saskatoon in February. The company is planning a new exports terminal in the Pacific Northwest to send fertilizer to Asian markets.Matt Smith/The Globe and Mail
Nutrien NTR-T is planning to build a major terminal at a Pacific Northwest port and is eyeing sites in the U.S. and Canada, according to chief executive officer Ken Seitz.
The Saskatchewan-based fertilizer giant is searching for a deep-water port with rail infrastructure that can handle bulk potash exports for fast-growing markets in the Indo-Pacific, including China, India and Japan, Mr. Seitz said in an interview.
Regulations, taxes and approval timelines will influence the company’s decision about whether to choose the U.S. or Canada.
“I just want to make sure the downstream infrastructure and the associated regulatory environment continues to be one conducive to us,” he said.
The major investment plan is an early test for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government, which has promised to streamline regulations and approvals and get Canada back to building big projects, especially when it comes to critical minerals like potash.
However, competition is stiff. The U.S. is slashing regulations and taxes in a bid to do the same.
Mr. Seitz refused to comment on which ports are in the running. He added that all sites must be deep-water, and have capacity for bulk shipments, sufficient rail infrastructure and conducive permitting requirements.
The company currently exports the majority of its potash through three major locations: North Vancouver, Saint John and Portland, Ore.
The largest is Vancouver, with an operational capacity of 10 million tonnes. Portland’s operational capacity is six million tonnes.
The new terminal will eventually reach at least Portland’s capacity, said Mr. Seitz.
The site should be selected by the end of 2025 and be operational by the end of the decade.
The expansion is part of Nutrien’s long-term strategy to capture market share in countries with maturing agricultural industries where fertilizer demand is forecast to climb as the availability of arable land decreases and farmers focus on productivity.
The global demand for potash is currently between 71 and 75 million tonnes. Nutrien projects that will grow to between 80 and 85 million tonnes by the end of the decade.
Canada is the world’s largest producer and exporter of potash and boasts the world’s largest potash reserves. The U.S. accounted for close to half of Canada’s potash exports in 2023.
“All our growth is going to be offshore in less mature markets,” said Mr. Seitz.
However, building major infrastructure in Canada to meet this demand is “very challenging,” he said, pointing to drawn-out regulatory timelines.
Mr. Carney’s government has promised to slash timelines by creating a federal project office with a mandate to conduct one review per project, and to issue a decision within two years instead of five. He also promised a new “first and last mile fund” to connect critical mineral projects to supply chains.
With potash included on the list of 34 Canadian critical minerals, Mr. Carney’s promise is good news, said Mr. Seitz, and it will factor into Nutrien’s decision making.
However, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has also made bold promises. Among a host of tax cuts and a broad 10-to-1 deregulation policy (for every one regulation added, 10 must be eliminated), the administration’s Executive Order 14241 called on all federal agencies to streamline permitting of infrastructure and energy projects.
This does not mean the U.S. is more competitive in broad terms, said Mr. Seitz. Each U.S. jurisdiction has different standards.
Moving potash is currently more expensive than mining it, he said. And meeting global market demand will be all about efficiency.
“At the end of the day when the dust clears, how do we competitively service our customers, that will be driving the decision making,” he said.
As for where the new terminal could go, there are a number of locations that could fit Nutrien’s needs, said Peter Hall, a professor of urban studies at Simon Fraser University. They include Prince Rupert, B.C., the Greater Vancouver region or another terminal in Portland.
As for whether permitting becomes an issue, Prof. Hall said that depends on whether Nutrien is looking to expand at an existing terminal, which would require less red tape, or in an undeveloped area, which would entail far more extensive approvals, though, “it would be hard to imagine that they have the kind of volume that would justify a greenfield site.”