OPEC cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast on Monday for the first time since December, citing the impact of data received for the first quarter and trade tariffs announced by the United States.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a monthly report, said world oil demand would rise by 1.30 million barrels a day in 2025 and by 1.28 million b/d in 2026. Both forecasts are down 150,000 b/d from last month’s figures.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs as well as a plan for higher output by OPEC+, which includes OPEC and allies such as Russia, have put downward pressure on oil prices this month and raised concern about economic growth.
In the report, OPEC lowered its world economic growth forecast this year to 3.0 per cent from 3.1 per cent and reduced next year’s to 3.1 per cent from 3.2 per cent. Last month, OPEC said trade concerns would contribute to volatility but had kept forecasts steady, saying the global economy would adjust.
“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook,” OPEC said in Monday’s report.
Oil prices maintained an earlier gain after the report was released, with Brent crude trading near $66 a barrel following U.S. exclusions on some tariffs. Prices have still dropped over 10 per cent so far this month.
OPEC’s oil demand view is still at the higher end of industry forecasts and it expects oil use to keep rising for years, unlike the International Energy Agency, which sees demand peaking this decade as the world switches to cleaner fuels.
The IEA is scheduled to update its oil demand forecasts on Tuesday.
OPEC’s report also showed that crude production by the wider OPEC+ fell in March by 37,000 b/d to 41.02 million b/d due in part to reductions by Nigeria and Iraq.
The group is scheduled to raise output in April and again in May as part of a plan to unwind its most recent layer of oil output cuts, which were put in place to support the market.
But the report also showed, ahead of the scheduled hikes, that Kazakhstan, which has persistently exceeded its OPEC+ output target, increased production further in March by 37,000 b/d, breaching the restrictions again.
The Central Asian country’s production rose to 1.852 million b/d last month, above its OPEC+ quota of 1.468 million b/d for January-March.
The energy ministry said last Thursday that Kazakhstan exceeded its OPEC+ quota in March but would fulfill its commitments in April and partially compensate for earlier overproduction, according to Interfax news agency.
An industry source told Reuters on Monday that Kazakhstan’s oil output fell in the first two weeks of April from the March average, but was still above the OPEC+ quota.