Suncor's refinery in Montreal. The company plans to boost the capacity of its refining network by 10 per cent to 511,000 barrels a day by 2028.Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press
Suncor Energy Inc. SU-T is aiming to boost oil production by 100,000 barrels a day to nearly one million by 2028, the latest in a series of lofty goals set by the Calgary-based company as much of the world faces a fuel crunch because of the war in Iran.
Suncor’s new three-year targets, released Tuesday, follow a record-breaking year of production in 2025. It produced 860,000 barrels a day last year – 33,000 more than in 2024 – but chief executive Rich Kruger says the company is far from done.
“We put out an ambitious three-year plan in 2024, and we achieved each and all of the objectives in it in two years,” Mr. Kruger told The Globe and Mail in an interview ahead of the company’s Tuesday morning investor day.
Now comes another set of bold plans, he said. By 2028, Suncor aims to increase free cash flow by $2-billion, reduce the break-even cost of a barrel by US$5 to US$38, and boost the capacity of Suncor’s refining network by 10 per cent to 511,000 barrels per day.
The market has often asked whether Suncor’s figurative cupboard is bare, Mr. Kruger said, and his answer is “no.” Instead, it’s “like walking into a Costco warehouse. We have a lot of opportunities.”
Mr. Kruger took the reins of Suncor in April, 2023, after spending seven years at the helm of Imperial Oil Ltd. IMO-T before retiring in December, 2019. For more than 30 years prior to that, he worked around the world with Imperial’s parent company, ExxonMobil Corp. XOM-N
Skeptics might question whether Suncor can continue the rapid period of growth it has seen over the past three years. But Mr. Kruger said in all his time in oil and gas, he has never led a company with a toolkit like Suncor’s, given its well-connected oil fields and their close integration to upgraders.
“We cut out the middleman in some instances, and we can take opportunities when the market is volatile,” he said.
“When I say ‘We’re not done yet,’ I say that with the utmost confidence.”
While few could have predicted the current war in Iran and its hit to global energy markets, Mr. Kruger said, it hasn’t changed Suncor’s priorities and how the company goes about its business.
In a research note Monday, CIBC analyst Dennis Fong wrote that Suncor is now the bank’s top pick of Canada’s oil majors in a commodity market roiled by the war. “The large-cap Canadian energy group continues to rate higher than its U.S. and supermajor peer groups,” he added.
Mr. Kruger said that Suncor’s production growth will “come from within.” That means no major acquisitions nor massive capital projects, “just doing business better” across Suncor’s assets.
The company’s Firebag site – its most profitable asset, located roughly 120 kilometres northeast of Fort McMurray - will play a central role in plans to boost production. Calling it “the gift that keeps on giving” and his “favourite child,” Mr. Kruger said Firebag has “tremendous expansion potential.”
Firebag produces around 215,000 barrels of oil a day through a three-part process called steam-assisted gravity drainage (or SAGD) to drill, inject steam and extract bitumen.
Suncor this week filed an application to increase Firebag’s production limit to 700,000 barrels a day. To get there, the company intends to add more wells, and use a new kind of steam technology and solvents.
Together, those improvements will add nearly $400-million a year in incremental free cash flow by 2028, Mr. Kruger told analysts Tuesday morning.
The work at Firebag follows the decision of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. CNQ-T earlier this month to hit pause on the planned $8.25-billion expansion of its Jackpine oil sands mine in northern Alberta, citing uncertainty over government policies and calling for the end of carbon pricing.
Asked whether Suncor is similarly cautious on the government policy front, Mr. Kruger told The Globe that for Canada to fulfill its energy potential, the country still needs fiscal and regulatory changes to attract more capital investment.
Suncor also intends to expand its oil sands mining operations over the next three years, increasing production by 45,000 barrels a day to more than 700,000 by 2028. That includes opening its Fort Hills North mine and improving extraction capacity across its sites.
“In mining, little things make big differences - and we are focused on every little thing to make big differences,” he told analysts.