Markets Today
- Wall Street’s major indexes fell over 1% on Thursday, with financial stocks taking a blow, as a surge in oil prices toward US$100 a barrel rekindled inflation fears and investors kept a close watch on mounting jitters in the private credit sector.
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index was down about 0.4%, with the rally again in oil prices helping to cushion the Canadian index. Financials dropped almost 1.1%. Canadian non-prime consumer lender goeasy tumbled 9.3%, extending sharp losses from the previous two sessions. Materials shed 1.7%, as shares of gold miners were down on falling prices of the yellow metal. Energy stocks climbed 1.4%.
- Brent crude futures jumped as much as 10.4% to US$101.59 a barrel, before trimming gains, as doubts persisted over whether reserve releases would be enough to cushion the hit from the Middle East supply shock. U.S. crude futures were last trading 7.6% higher at US$93.87 a barrel, and Brent last stood at around $99 a barrel.
- Treasury yields rose again amid concerns about resurgent inflation that could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 4.1 basis points to 4.247% and reached 4.251%, the highest since February 5. Moves in Canadian bond yields were more modest.
03/12/26 12:18
Algoma shares tank as losses balloon amid trade war
- Niall McGee
Algoma Steel Group Inc.’s ASTL-T losses ballooned in the fourth quarter as U.S. President Donald Trump’s continuing trade war battered Canada’s last remaining independent steelmaker.
Sault Ste. Marie, Ont.-based Algoma on Wednesday evening reported a net loss of $364.7-million for the quarter ending Dec. 31, compared with a loss of $66.5-million during the same period last year.
The company’s steel shipments fell by 31 per cent to 378,533 tonnes. Algoma incurred $60.6-million in tariff costs in the quarter. As the importer of record, the company pays the tariff on any steel it sells into the U.S.
The stock is down about 10 per cent in midday trading today.
03/12/26 12:10
The TSX has a ‘HALO’ stock advantage
Investors are turning to Canada’s resource-rich stock market for shelter from the turmoil around artificial intelligence – and on hopes the new technology will ultimately boost productivity for some of its biggest names. Shares of software and other companies with business models considered vulnerable to replacement by AI have been selling off for months, dragging down major indexes like the S&P 500, the U.S. benchmark. But the TSX is packed with the type of capital-intensive, economically important companies that analysts say could evade disruption.
These so-called “HALO” stocks, or companies with heavy assets and low obsolescence, include energy producers, metal miners, industrials and utilities. Together, they account for 51 per cent of the Toronto stock market’s weighting versus 16 per cent for the S&P 500.
The recent move into HALO stocks could help the TSX sustain recent outperformance compared to Wall Street. The Toronto market was up 28 per cent in 2025, while the S&P 500 added 16 per cent.
03/12/26 11:51
Why investors should avoid looking for a market bottom in wartime
- Andrew Galbraith
The attack on Iran by U.S. and Israeli forces on Feb. 28 had all the makings of a major market crisis. Worries over disruptions to the global oil supply saw the benchmark crude price spike to nearly US$120 a barrel on Monday before plunging again. A flight to cash has even hit traditional safe havens such as gold and U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. stock volatility has reached more than 10-month highs.
Against that backdrop, the S&P 500 and Canadian S&P/TSX Composite Index stood about 3 to 4 per cent shy of recent record-highs on Wednesday afternoon.
It is a lesson, market experts say, in the effective impossibility of timing investments and predicting market movements to maximize gains, particularly in the middle of a major geopolitical event.
“It is a fool’s errand,” said Mark Lotocky, an advice-only financial planner and owner of the Dixon Davis Group in Victoria. Rather than trying to predict the bottom of the market in a war, he said, “if you have the cash, invest. Don’t hold on to it ... There are no statistics that say it’s better to hold on for a month to see if the market’s going to go down again.”
Read more in my Globe Investor column today
03/12/26 11:36
U.S. weekly jobless claims point to stable labour market but Iran war poses a risk
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting labour market conditions remained stable even after the economy shed jobs in February, but the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran poses a downside risk.
For now, the low level of layoffs evident in the report from the Labor Department on Thursday should give the Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates unchanged for some time as the conflict in the Middle East drives up oil prices and threatens to fan domestic inflation, economists said. The war has raised U.S. gasoline prices by at least 20% since it started.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 213,000 for the week ended March 7. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week. Claims have been tucked in a 199,000-232,000 range this year amid low layoffs.
The government reported last week that nonfarm payrolls decreased by 92,000 jobs in February, the sixth decline since January 2025 and the second largest. The drop was blamed on harsh winter weather, a strike by healthcare workers and payback following outsized payroll gains in January, as well as a general hesitancy by businesses to increase headcount because of uncertainty from import tariffs and integration of artificial intelligence into some work roles.
- Reuters
03/12/26 11:31
Trump administration may loosen U.S. shipping rules to combat fuel price spike, sources say
The Trump administration has told U.S. oil companies and shipping groups to prepare for a potential waiver of the century-old Jones Act governing domestic shipping to ease movement of fuel around the country, two sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters.
The announcement could come as early as Thursday, the sources said, and would be aimed at combating spiking fuel prices since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
Under the Jones Act, goods shipped between U.S. ports must be carried on vessels that are U.S.-built, U.S.-flagged and mostly U.S.-owned. The requirement sharply limits the number of tankers available for domestic shipments.
Waiving the rule temporarily would allow foreign ships to carry fuel between U.S. ports, potentially lowering shipping costs and speeding deliveries
The United States has issued Jones Act waivers in the past only sparingly, typically in response to major supply disruptions.
- Reuters
03/12/26 11:26
Oil unlikely to hit US$200 a barrel, U.S. energy chief says
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Thursday that oil prices are unlikely to reach US$200 a barrel, with President Donald Trump touting U.S. gains from higher prices as the war with Iran disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
With the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran widening, two crude tankers blazed in an Iraqi port after a hit by suspected Iranian explosive-laden boats, while scores of other oil-laden ships remained stranded with the strait still shuttered.
“I would say unlikely, but we are focused on the military operation and solving a problem,” Wright told CNN when asked if prices would reach $200 a barrel - a level that an Iranian official said prices could hit if the war further escalates.
Wright’s use of the word “unlikely” was a veiled concession that a spike to $200 was possible, though he repeated that the price jump would be weeks not months.
Brent oil hit all-time highs in 2008 of around $147 per barrel, on tension between the West and Iran over its nuclear program, a weak U.S. dollar, and inflation fears.
This time analysts say oil prices could remain high because of the strait’s unprecedented shuttering.
“Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200 because the oil price depends on the regional security which you have destabilized,” Ebrahim Zolfaqari, the spokesperson for Tehran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters, said on Wednesday.
Wright told CNN: “We’re in the midst of a significant disruption in the short term to fix the security of energy flow for the long term.” The administration was focused on “pragmatic solutions ... to get through these few weeks of tight energy supply,” he said.
Trump wrote in a social media post: “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.” He said he was more focused on stopping Iran from having nuclear weapons.
- Reuters
03/12/26 10:36
Private credit jitters spread
Investors are scrutinizing the roughly US$2 trillion private credit market following a string of credit issues that have surfaced in recent months and Swiss private equity firm Partners Group warned private credit default rates could double in the next few years.
Morgan Stanley (MS-N) fell 4.3% after limiting redemptions at one of its private credit funds following similar actions by Blackstone and BlackRock earlier this month. Blackstone and BlackRock were down over 1% each. JPMorgan Chase reduced the value of some loans to private credit funds on Thursday.
The broader S&P 500 financials sector dropped 1.5%, with banks Citigroup and Goldman Sachs down over 3%.
“The question is how many people have this on their books. Where is it being marked? Are they derivatives? We need to keep a very close eye on that as things unravel quickly,” said Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.
- Reuters
03/12/26 10:12
Fed to cut rates in June, economists still say, despite war inflation risks
The U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time this year in June, according to economists polled by Reuters who are clinging to their views despite the risk that disruption of energy markets resulting from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran boosts already-elevated inflation.
An around 40% surge in global oil prices has already upped the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury note yield by nearly 30 basis points and interest rate futures pricing has moved to September for the year’s first rate cut. They have priced out the likelihood of a second one. With inflation already well above the Fed’s 2% target before the war began on the last day of February, and an unexpected 92,000-drop in nonfarm payrolls last month, all 96 economists in the March 6-12 poll see the Fed holding at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18.
Slightly under three-quarters expected that outcome in last month’s survey. Around two-thirds of economists, 63 of 96, expected the Fed to lower rates to a 3.25%-3.50% range next quarter, most likely in June, right after chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.
- Reuters
03/12/26 10:05
North American Construction shares plunge after earnings
- Brenda Bouw
North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA-T) shares sank in early Thursday trading after the company reported mixed results for its fourth quarter. The results led to at least one analyst downgrade.
After markets closed on Wednesday, the company reported revenue of $344-million, down from $372.7-million a year earlier. The result was ahead of expectations of $311.8-million, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Adjusted EBITDA was $77.6-million, down from $108.9-million a year earlier. The expectation was for adjusted EBITDA of $98.1-million.
BMO analyst John Gibson downgraded the stock to “market perform” (hold) from “outperform” (buy) and lowered his target to $23 from $26 after the earnings report.
“NOA posted softer Q4/25 results, driven by cost increases related to its Fargo Moorhead project. The company’s 2026 guide implies a solid lift in results, although we don’t expect a material ramp until 2H at the earliest,” he said, adding that “patience [is] required as the company looks to regain investor confidence post some guidance revisions in 2025.”
Shares were down about 24 per cent in early trading.
03/12/26 10:01
Iran’s supreme leader, in first remarks, vows to keep strait closed
Iran will avenge the blood of its martyrs, keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and attack U.S. bases, new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said on Thursday in a statement read out on state television, his first remarks since succeeding his slain father.
In the defiant address, Khamenei said the United States must close all its bases in the region. The strait, which runs past Iran’s coast and supplies a fifth of the world’s oil, should remain shut to put pressure on the enemy, he said.
Two tankers were ablaze in an Iraqi port on Thursday after a hit by suspected Iranian explosive-laden boats, a step-up in attacks that have cut off oil from the Middle East and defied U.S. President Donald Trump’s claim to have won the war he launched two weeks ago.
- Reuters
03/12/26 09:32
TSX falls at open on Middle East tensions
Canada’s main stock index fell at the open on Thursday with heavyweight financials leading declines as escalating Middle East tensions hurt risk sentiment, while higher crude prices intensified inflation worries.
At 9:31 a.m. ET, the S&P/TSX composite index was down 0.25% at 33,036.21 points.
Wall Street’s main indexes opened lower as well as oil prices surged to nearly US$100 a barrel, fanning inflation worries and forcing traders to dial back expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 174.7 points, or 0.37%, at the open to 47242.52. The S&P 500 fell 34.9 points, or 0.52%, to 6740.88, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 189.5 points, or 0.83%, to 22526.585
- Reuters
03/12/26 09:22
A REIT downgrade and a gold stock upgrade
– Darcy Keith
There are a couple analyst downgrades this morning: North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA-T) and BSR REIT (HOM-UN-T) both saw ratings lowered to the equivalent of a hold. Meanwhile, Kinross Gold Corp.(KGC-N) saw a ratings upgrade.
For details on these rating moves, and much more from the analyst community this morning, see Thursday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades report.
03/12/26 08:56
Big deficit isolationist America can’t work, says prominent economist
– Scott Barlow
Popular economist Kyla Scanlon, inventor of the term “vibecession” has published a column in the New York Times arguing that the U.S. debt load is increasingly untenable under the current president.
“In fiscal year 2025, the United States spent roughly $7 trillion and collected about $5.2 trillion in tax revenue. That leaves a $1.8 trillion gap that has to be closed … There is an enormous tension for an administration that now claims greatness as isolationism and regularly alienates and insults (and worse) global peers but also cannot finance itself without the support of other countries … foreign participation in U.S. Treasury markets is really important for two main reasons: It lowers what the United States pays to borrow, and it expands how much the United States can borrow in the first place … he United States as a sponge, borrower and spender — has worked remarkably well for decades … The rest of the world is choosing to deal with one another rather than the United States. The enormous trade pact between India and the European Union, the strategic partnership between China and Canada — the rest of the world is showing that the United States isn’t the first stop anymore … When [trust in U.S. leadership] goes, the costs hit at home, landing in higher mortgage rates, car loans, credit card rates and a government that can no longer afford its own ambitions."
03/12/26 08:52
Power needs of data centres benefit these engineering stocks
– Scott Barlow
Data centres will apparently run on direct current power according to BofA Securities analyst Andrew Tobin and the necessary equipment benefits specific engineering companies,
“Data centers are moving from alternating current (AC) architectures to direct current (DC) because rack power density (watts/server rack) is increasing … Both Nvidia’s 800‑volt and OCP’s 400‑volt direct current architectures will require sizeable changes to electrical equipment … Nvidia expects to start shipping Vera Rubin Ultra (VR300) chips for the Kyber rack architecture in 2H27. Both Vertiv and Eaton have publicly stated they will have 800 VDC products available in 2H26 … Even though direct current (DC) removes simplifies electrical distribution, data centers will need new DC equipment, which is likely to come with premium pricing. Most low voltage (LV) equipment is eliminated … In our coverage we see Buy-rated Eaton (ETN), GE Vernova (GEV), Schneider Electric (SU FP/SBGSY), Siemens (SIE GR/SIEGY), and Vertiv (VRT) as beneficiaries of the transition. All five are listed by Nvidia as power system providers and have created reference designs for direct current architectures … Many of the new DC products are power electronics - they use solid-state semiconductors to convert, control, and manage electricity. However, these semiconductors fit within larger electrical products & systems. We think successful vendors will need “systems level” engineering expertise and the ability to provide commissioning and ongoing maintenance service."
03/12/26 08:43
Sobeys parent Empire reports third-quarter loss on e-commerce charges
– Susan Krashinsky Robertson
A Sobeys grocery store in Toronto. Sobeys parent company Empire Sobeys parent Empire reported increased sales in the third quarter.Melissa Tait/The Globe and Mail
Sobeys parent Empire Co. Ltd. EMP-A-T reported increased sales in the third quarter, but one-time charges related to a major shift in its e-commerce strategy resulted in a net loss for the grocer.
The Stellarton, N.S.-based retailer, which owns grocery banners including Sobeys, Safeway, IGA, Farm Boy and discounter FreshCo, on Thursday reported $7.9-billion in sales in the quarter ended Jan. 31, representing growth of 2.1 per cent compared to the same period last year.
Same-store sales – an important metric that tracks growth not tied to new store openings – were up 3 per cent in the company’s grocery stores in the quarter. Empire reported that growth came from both its discount and full-price stores, a contrast from other major grocers who have noted a continuing trend of customers shopping in discount stores and buying items on promotion more frequently.
As the company previously disclosed, it took a $746-million writedown this quarter on its Voilà e-commerce business, which has not met financial expectations. Empire announced in January that it would shut down its Voilà facilities in Alberta, and would instead expand its online services through partnerships with third-party delivery providers.
The closing of the facilities in Calgary and Edmonton resulted in severance and decommissioning costs, as well as one-time cash payments related to contract terminations. Construction on another facility in Vancouver was paused in 2024, and remains on hold.
03/12/26 08:33
CSIS director outlines state of Canada-U.S. trade negotiations
– Scott Barlow
Scotiabank analyst Patrick Brydon listed the top takeaways from a hosted call with CSIS director of Americas regarding the state of North American trade negotiations.
“America First. The U.S. is reasserting its preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, reinvigorating the Monroe Doctrine with an “America First” approach. This stems from a belief that past U.S. absence allowed China and others to gain significant influence in the region, creating security and economic challenges that can no longer be ignored. China is a critical factor in the USMCA renegotiations. The U.S. remains concerned about Chinese companies leveraging Mexico for transshipment to bypass tariffs. The U.S. is pushing for common inbound investment screening mechanisms and supply chain transparency across North America to counter Chinese economic strategies. Watch the feet, not the hands. Despite protectionist rhetoric, the U.S. administration’s policies have consistently exempted North America and USMCA-compliant trade from broad tariffs, indicating a deliberate strategy to maintain North America as a joint production platform vital for global competitiveness. The USMCA is increasingly seen as evolving into a national security and supply chain security platform … Trilateral versus bilateral. Potential trilateral win-wins could be achieved through side letters that commit all three countries to common objectives, rather than renegotiating core text. Examples include a common position on North American energy dominance or abundance (recognizing energy’s role in the trading and security bloc), reviewing domestic barriers to increase critical minerals production and integrating supply chains, and a common letter on Artificial Intelligence (AI) to shape the international debate on trusted AI, linking energy and critical minerals as vital AI components. Outcome probabilities. Negotiations are currently in the “messy middle part” with no single outcome holding a strong majority probability … While the USMCA is expected to remain a trilateral agreement, the U.S. prefers bilateral negotiations with Canada and Mexico separately to maximize its leverage. Conversely, Canada and Mexico are attempting to present a common front as part of a ‘middle power strategy’ to enhance their collective bargaining power."
03/12/26 08:20
What every Canadian investor needs to know today
– S.R. Slobodian
Global markets skidded as surging crude prices stoked inflation worries, which could force central banks to reassess interest-rate moves.
Wall Street futures were in the red as the escalating Middle East conflict dampened risk appetite.
TSX futures were little changed.
In Canada, investors are getting results from Empire Co. Ltd., Premium Brand Holdings Corp., Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. and Ballard Power Systems Inc.
On Wall Street, markets are watching earnings from Adobe Systems Inc.
“War headlines and energy prices will determine how risk appetite evolves in the coming days,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note.
“It is nearly impossible to give precise price forecasts. Instead, taking oil and energy prices as given, the longer they remain high, the shorter market rebounds are likely to be and the greater the risk of a notable market correction.”
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was down 0.32 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 declined 0.45 per cent, Germany’s DAX gave back 0.16 per cent and France’s CAC 40 retreated 0.43 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.04 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 0.7 per cent.
03/12/26 08:07
Analyst makes huge increase in gold target, provides top picks in sector
– Scott Barlow
RBC head of global metals and mining research Josh Wolfson jacked up his target price on bullion Thursday morning,
“Gold forecasts in 2026/27 rise sharply and long-term increased. We increase our gold forecast to $5,723/oz in 2026 (+21 per cent vs. prior), $6,500/oz in 2027 (+27 per cent vs. prior), and $4,000/oz long-term (+33 per cent vs. prior $3,000/oz). At mid-cycle valuations, we calculate both gold producer and royalty equities are currently pricing in $4,500/oz (vs. ~$4,900 prior to the recent correction). Recent geopolitical conflict reinforces the potential for sustained high gold prices, supporting our positive gold equity views, but also higher energy prices—royalty companies are naturally a beneficiary, given a lack of cost exposure, while we forecast producer margins can remain elevated, despite incremental potential cost headwinds. Our preferred precious metals equities include: Newmont, Kinross, OR Royalties, Wheaton Precious Metals, Artemis, IAMGOLD, Coeur Mining.
We expect copper prices to stay strong through 2026, but modestly weaken in the second half: We’re raising our 2026 copper price estimate to $5.88/lb (+12 per cent vs prior), expecting $6.00/lb in H1 before a modest dip to $5.75/lb in H2 as supply disruptions from Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, and Cobre Panama potentially normalize. The key demand wildcard is whether US copper inventories flow back into the market or get sequestered into strategic reserves, though rising global inventory suggests near-term price sensitivity, especially in China. We’ve raised our 2027-2029 forecast to $6.00/lb (+20 per cent vs prior) on electrification, infrastructure, and defense tailwinds alone, while AI upside remains uncertain but not necessary for a structural deficit to materialize. Our preferred base metals equities include: Capstone, Hudbay, and First Quantum."
03/12/26 08:07
Getting closer to ‘worst case scenario’ in Iran
– Scott Barlow
Scotiabank analyst Paul Cheng warns clients that we are approaching the ‘worst case scenario” for the Iran conflict,
“Continuing Middle East escalation over the past 24 hours that has seen a plethora of regional energy infrastructure come under attack, largest-ever strategic reserve releases, and reports that Iran has begun to mine the Strait of Hormuz has seen the global oil market enter uncharted waters. With the conflict quickly evolving into our worst-case scenario, the global oil market faces two extreme diametric outlooks from here, in our opinion. With the global economic fallout quickly becoming untenable, we believe further escalation in the form of a ground invasion to force regime change and Hormuz’s reopening could lead to a spike >$200/bbl while a U.S. decision to walk away from the conflict could lead to a precipitous price collapse. We thus reiterate our previous analysis that the ball is indeed in President Trump’s court.
03/12/26 07:54
Gold treads water as margin calls, strong dollar offset safety demand
Gold prices were little changed on Thursday, as margin calls on sliding equities, a stronger dollar and dampened rate-cut bets offset safe-haven demand for bullion amid the escalating U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
Spot gold was steady at $5,178.05 per ounce as of 1130 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up 0.1 per cent at $5,184.50.
Global shares fell on Thursday as fresh attacks in the Gulf drove oil up over $100 a barrel and shattered any prospects of an imminent de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.
Iran said the world should brace for $200-a-barrel before two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters were set ablaze in attacks.
“These events are naturally the sort of things that would drive gold prices significantly higher (on safe-haven demand), I think gold is maybe being capped a little bit at the moment just because of liquidations generated by margin calls on equity futures,” said Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree.
He added the dollar and yields were also headwinds for bullion at the moment. The dollar extended gains to hold near its strongest levels this year while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were up at a five-week high.
– Reuters
03/12/26 07:24
Shares skid after attacks on Gulf shipping
Global shares fell on Thursday as attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf shattered any prospects of an imminent de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, briefly pushing oil prices above $100 a barrel and stoking fresh inflation concerns.
The reaction underscores how swiftly bets on an early end to the war, which gathered pace earlier this week, are being unwound.
Conflicting messages from U.S. President Donald Trump have left traders wary of being caught wrong-footed, prompting them to stick to the sidelines or seek refuge in safe havens.
The International Energy Agency’s plan to release 400 million barrels of oil from its reserves, announced on Wednesday in the largest such move in its history, failed to soothe investors.
Brent crude futures jumped as much as 10.4 per cent to $101.59 a barrel, before trimming gains, as doubts persisted over whether reserve releases would be enough to cushion the hit from the Middle East supply shock.
U.S. crude futures were last trading 4.4 per cent higher at $91.11.
“Even if the reserves are large, how quickly they can be delivered to markets is untested. Ultimately, a market balanced via strategic stock releases is going to be far less logistically efficient,” said Joel Hancock, energy analyst at Natixis CIB.
The STOXX 600, the pan-European equity benchmark, slipped 0.4 per cent. Futures tracking the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 in the U.S. were also both down 0.5 per cent.
The MSCI All-World index fell 0.3 per cent. Odds on prediction markets platform Polymarket implied a 25 per cent chance of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran by March 31, lower than 45 per cent earlier this week.
– Reuters
03/12/26 06:34
Oil jumps again as Iran escalates attacks on Gulf shipping
A foreign tanker carrying Iraqi fuel oil damaged after catching fire in Iraq's territorial waters, following unidentified attacks that targeted two foreign tankers, according to Iraqi port officials, near Basra, Iraq on March 12.Mohammed Aty/Reuters
Oil prices rose sharply on Thursday as Iran stepped up attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, fuelling concerns of a prolonged conflict and potential disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures climbed $5.95, or 6.47 per cent, to $97.93 a barrel at 0915 GMT, having hit $100 per barrel in earlier trading, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $5.25, or 6 per cent, to $92.50.
Brent hit $119.50 a barrel on Monday, its highest since mid-2022, then dropped after U.S. President Donald Trump said the Iran war could be over soon.
The war in the Middle East is causing the biggest oil-supply disruption in the history of global markets, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday, a day after approving the release of a record volume of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles.
Middle East Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day - a volume equalling almost 10% of world demand - as a result of the conflict, the agency said in its latest monthly oil market report.
– Reuters
03/12/26 05:02
World faces largest-ever oil supply disruption on Middle East war, IEA says
Gas flares at the Repsol oil refinery in A Coruna, northwestern Spain, on Tuesday, when the 32 member countries of the IEA agreed to unlock 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves.MIGUEL RIOPA/AFP/Getty Images
The war in the Middle East is creating the biggest oil supply disruption in history, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday, a day after the agency agreed to release a record volume of oil from strategic stockpiles.
Global supply is expected to drop by 8 million barrels per day in March due to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel along the Iranian coast, since the U.S. and Israel began a campaign of airstrikes on Iran on February 28.
Middle East Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 million bpd - a volume equal to almost 10% of world demand - as a result of the conflict, the IEA said in its latest monthly oil market report, adding that without a rapid restart of shipping flows these losses were set to increase.
“Shut-in upstream production will take weeks and, in some cases, months to return to pre-crisis levels depending on the degree of field complexity and the timing for workers, equipment and resources to return to the region,” the agency said.
– Reuters
03/12/26 05:00
Wednesday markets recap: TSX and S&P 500 end lower as oil prices rise
Tankers sail in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, in the United Arab Emirates on Wednesday. Further attacks on ships in the strait worsened supply-disruption fears on Wednesday.Stringer/Reuters
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 289.24 points, or 0.61 per cent, to 47,417.27, the S&P 500 lost 5.68 points, or 0.08 per cent, to 6,775.80 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 19.03 points, or 0.08 per cent, to 22,716.14.
The S&P/TSX composite index ended down 150.82 points, or 0.5 per cent at 33,119.83 points, after two straight days of modest gains. The technology sector fell 2.9 per cent, with shares of Constellation Software CSU-T down 8.1 per cent. The materials group declined 1 per cent and consumer staples ended 1.5 per cent lower. Three of the 10 major sectors ended higher, including energy, which advanced 2.6 per cent.
The focus for markets remained on energy as further attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz worsened supply-disruption fears. The International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries have unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves into the global market in a bid to bolster supplies and calm markets. But analysts said the release of reserves was inadequate to ease those concerns.
Brent futures rose $4.18, or 4.8 per cent, to settle at US$91.98 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate ended the session up US$3.80, or 4.6 per cent, at US$87.25 a barrel.
Gold prices edged lower, weighed down by an uptick in the U.S. dollar and looming inflation concerns that bolstered expectations of higher interest rates. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 1.2 per cent lower at US$5,179.10 per ounce.
Canadian bond yields moved higher across the curve, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries after U.S. consumer prices picked up in February. The 10-year was up 7.4 basis points at 3.484 per cent, marking its highest level since Jan. 2.
- Globe staff, wires