Boeing Co. raised its rolling 20-year industry forecast for passenger aircraft by 3 per cent on Monday, fuelled by strong air traffic predictions, though global geopolitical and economic risks could upset the rosy outlook.
The world’s largest plane maker said at the Paris Airshow it expected 44,040 new airplane deliveries over the next two decades, up from the roughly 43,000 it forecast a year ago.
That would be worth $6.8-trillion (5.4-trillion pounds) over the next two decades at list prices versus last year’s $6.3-trillion prediction.
Dominating that tally is a roughly 3 per cent increase in the forecast for single-aisle aircraft, such as the Airbus A320 family and the competing Boeing 737 Max which remains grounded in the wake of two deadly crashes.
The forecast is underpinned by a prediction for average global traffic growth of 4.6 per cent, down fractionally from the 4.7 per cent projected last year.
The $3.8 trillion single-aisle market is driven to a large degree by strong demand in the Asia Pacific travel market, Boeing said, though the Chicago-based manufacturer is exposed to slowing economies, trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties.
Boeing now sees 32,420 deliveries in the medium-haul, single-aisle category, which is the cash cow of the world’s two largest plane makers and popular with low-cost airlines, the jet maker said.
In the wide-body segment, Boeing sees demand for 8,340 new passenger airplanes valued at more than $2.6 trillion over the next two decades, up 270 from the 8,070 it forecast last year, driven by airlines’ need to refresh their fleets and growth in demand for longer-haul air travel.