Christmas is still a ways off, but this time each year, armadas of ships carrying toys, electronics and other future gifts are making their way across the oceans headed for the mother of all consumer markets: America.
That’s in normal years, which this certainly isn’t, as U.S. President Donald Trump rips up the world economic order by erecting steep tariff walls around his country. As a result, fewer cargo ships than usual are U.S.-bound right now, according to early trade data, setting the 2025 holiday season up as the Christmas that tariffs ate.
June is typically the month retailers begin to fill their warehouses with goods for the holiday rush, kicking off a four-to-five-month-long flurry of activity. But the June numbers on U.S. imports (the latest available at press time) show the impact of Trump’s trade war is already being felt. Imports of toys tumbled 30.6% from last year. The flow of such goods from China, which accounted for three-quarters of all U.S. toy imports last year, fell a staggering 47% year-over-year.
In short, fewer toy imports will mean less choice and higher prices. And Trump has made it clear he’s just fine with that. In May, when pressed about the impact his pending Liberation Day tariffs would have on the price and availability of consumer goods, the president was dismissive. “Somebody said the shelves will be open,” he said. “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple bucks more than they would normally.”
As U.S. imports from China collapse, companies are scrambling to bring in goods from other countries with lower tariff rates. Early evidence already shows a jump in toy imports, particularly from Vietnam and Mexico, but those increases may not be enough to fill the gaping hole left by China. The steep tariffs also mean prices will climb. U.S. importers paid US$615 million in duties to bring in toys and such in the first half of 2025, up from US$740,000 in all of 2024. Retailers like Walmart have already warned they’re reaching their capacity to absorb higher costs without passing the bill to consumers—increases that will no doubt hit Canadians, too.
To borrow a line from the Grinch (the green one): “Maybe Christmas, he thought, does come from a store. Maybe Christmas, perhaps, will cost a little bit more.”