Former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney at Intersect 26 in Toronto on Wednesday.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail
Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney warned that while he believes the province’s secessionist movement isn’t likely to succeed, national unity could soon face a serious stress test if frustration with Ottawa drives more people to reject federalism.
Onstage at The Globe and Mail’s Intersect 2026 conference in Toronto on Wednesday, Mr. Kenney described Quebec’s five-decade-long sovereignty debate as a “sterile, pointless political civil war” that has devastated its economy. He said Alberta would likely march down the same path if independence gathers even minority support on a potential fall referendum ballot.
“If they get enough of these frustrated federalists voting for leverage and you get, I don’t know, 20-, 30-, 35-per-cent yes, that creates a permanent divisive fact in our politics,” Mr. Kenney said in response to a question by Globe columnist Andrew Coyne.
“It will turn the separatist movement from a marginal fringe into a real factor in our politics that will be disruptive for a long time to come.”
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Over the past year, the Harper-era former cabinet minister has emerged as one of the few voices making the federalist argument in opposition to the province’s separatist cause, discussing the topic in media and posting criticisms of the movement on social platforms. In May, he will debate an Alberta lawyer advocating for independence.
It is a position that has not been taken up by many elected officials.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith continues to advocate for what she calls a “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.” Prime Minister Mark Carney has largely stayed out of the conversation, and federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has blamed the Liberals for alienating those in Alberta and Quebec who no longer feel they belong in the country.
Support for Alberta’s separatist movement has waxed and waned between 20 and 30 per cent for several years. It has recently been energized by converging political forces, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s “51st state” provocations, the federal Liberals’ continued grip on power in Ottawa, and Ms. Smith’s changes to direct-democracy laws that have paved the way for an independence vote.
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Her decision to lower the number of signatures needed to force a citizen-initiated referendum – announced the day after Mr. Carney’s 2025 election win – allowed separatists to begin gathering signatories in early January. Their deadline to submit documents is less than two weeks away, but they claim to have already met the province’s threshold of nearly 178,000 signatures.
Ms. Smith rose to power in 2022 after Mr. Kenney was booted from the leadership of the United Conservative Party. She rode the path to Premier on the backs of the same pandemic anger that ended Mr. Kenney’s three-year tenure leading the province.
On Wednesday, Mr. Kenney described Alberta separatism as a long-standing fringe movement and noted a recent change to the province’s political environment, in which “alt-right populists, who are angry with a lot of things, got active in politics coming out of COVID in Alberta.”
He argued Ms. Smith is trying to achieve two objectives by easing direct-democracy rules.
“I think it was the view of my successor that this was one way of managing internal political tensions in her party, and secondly, a way of maximizing leverage with Ottawa,” he said.
Public opinion polling shows around half of UCP members support independence. Last month, UCP backbencher Jason Stephan, an MLA from Red Deer, took out space in the Western Standard and Red Deer Advocate to write that “a referendum on independence is good for Alberta,” saying a vote would hold Ottawa accountable.
Ms. Smith, despite calls to denounce Mr. Stephan, said she welcomes diverse opinions in her caucus.
She is also in negotiations with Ottawa on energy and environmental policy to fulfill an agreement she made with Mr. Carney last November, and has held it up as proof that Confederation can work. Days after signing the memorandum of understanding, UCP members booed her for it at the party’s annual meeting.
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Mr. Kenney took issue with the notion that separatism can be a useful tactic to extract concessions from Ottawa, pointing to the financial exodus that happened in Quebec in the wake of its two sovereignty referendums.
“My message to Albertans is, like, is this really what we want to emulate? Is this, you know, impoverishment, becoming a have-not province, becoming a recipient of equalization – is that the model we want to follow?" he said.
But there is a tension between Alberta and Quebec’s competing sovereignty movements, Mr. Kenney said, as both provinces aim to extract concessions through what he described as a “knife-at-the-throat strategy.”
Beyond a potential independence referendum, Ms. Smith has scheduled an Oct. 19 vote on several immigration and constitutional proposals, many of which aren’t possible to change without buy-in from Ottawa and a coalition of provinces.
Last summer, when Ms. Smith was travelling the province gauging interest in some of those proposals, she frequently referenced special agreements between Quebec and Ottawa as her model for Alberta. Recently, the two provinces have found some common ground.
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And in Quebec, the Parti Québécois is currently the odds-on favourite to win the coming provincial election scheduled for this fall. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to call an independence referendum if his party secures power.
Mr. Kenney warned that Ottawa will face a serious risk going into Alberta’s fall referendum if it makes carve-outs for Quebec that appear unequal to those given to the western province.
“Don’t be dismissive about this thing. I think that with that frustrated federalist contingent, if we don’t get resolution on the MOU between Ottawa and Alberta ... you could very well end up with a yes vote north of 35 per cent,” he said.
“This is not to be trifled with, and I’m not sure that Ottawa fully understands the gravity of that.”
With a report from Jeff Gray